Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - CEA23 shows weak and stable operation, with no transactions for quotas of other years; the listed trading volume of CEA is about 100,000 tons, and there are no large - volume transactions; the listed trading volume of CCER is 0.01 million tons, with an average transaction price of 93.8 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices in the range of 76 - 80 yuan/ton [4] - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises, with less market selling pressure than in Q4 2024 [4] - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the national carbon market gap is slightly reduced, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the short - term price support level is around 76 yuan/ton [5] - Pay attention to the trading activity around the pre - allocation deadline of the 2024 annual quota (April 20); the depletion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and strong upward momentum may appear in Q2 2025 and later [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: CEA23 runs weakly and stably, with no transactions for quotas of other years; the listed trading volume is about 100,000 tons, and there are no large - volume transactions [3] - CCER: The listed trading volume is 0.01 million tons, with an average transaction price of 93.8 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - Carbon quota prices: The closing prices of carbon quotas 19 - 20, 21, 22, and 23 are 83.50, 80.44, 88.00, and 82.06 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and - 0.77% [7] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices in the range of 76 - 80 yuan/ton [4] Core Logic - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises, with less market selling pressure than in Q4 2024 [4] - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the national carbon market gap is slightly reduced, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the short - term price support level is around 76 yuan/ton [5] - Pay attention to the trading activity around the pre - allocation deadline of the 2024 annual quota (April 20); the depletion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and strong upward momentum may appear in Q2 2025 and later [5]
全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第58期）-20250416
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-04-16 11:09