社零数据点评：3月社零+5.9%，看好内需持续回暖

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on domestic demand recovery, driven by continuous policy support and improving real estate data [2][3] - The retail sector shows significant recovery, with March retail sales growing by 5.9% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [1][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for the home furnishing sector to rebound, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector - In the first three months of 2025, total retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with notable growth in furniture (+18.1%), cultural office supplies (+21.7%), cosmetics (+3.2%), and gold and silver jewelry (+6.9%) [1] - March retail sales alone saw a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with furniture and cultural office supplies experiencing growth rates of 29.5% and 21.5%, respectively [1][6] Real Estate Sector - The report notes a decline in new housing starts, completions, sales, and residential development investment in the first quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 23.9%, 14.7%, 2.0%, and 9.0%, respectively [1][2] - March data shows a continued decline in new housing starts (-18.6%) and completions (-8.1%), but a slight improvement in sales (-1.2%) [1][2] Policy Impact - The government has released favorable signals for the real estate market, including measures to stabilize housing prices and enhance consumer confidence [2][3] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" emphasizes support for upgrading consumer goods and encourages the replacement of old products, which is expected to stimulate demand in the home furnishing sector [3][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and ZBOM, which are expected to capture market share from smaller competitors [7] - In the cultural office supplies sector, companies like Morning Glory are highlighted for their strong channel advantages and innovative product offerings [7] - The cosmetics sector is also noted for its growth potential, with domestic brands expected to gain market share through diverse product strategies [7]