“巨石”之后，转债宜徐徐图之

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Without considering the impact of tariff issues, the convertible bond market might have entered a gradually calm April. However, the "tariff storm" accelerated the market adjustment, but also led to the early resolution of the high - valuation pressure on convertible bonds. After the adjustment, the cost - performance of convertible bonds has been restored to a certain extent. In the future, it is recommended to gradually allocate convertible bonds in small positions, with a style preference of value first and then growth [4]. - Industry investment should focus on three main lines: increased domestic demand policies, a new global game equilibrium, and the oversold rebound of the technology sector [4][30][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. "巨石"之后，转债宜徐徐图之 - Reduction of positions by the allocation side: Based on the convertible bond holding data of institutions on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and the subscription and redemption data of convertible bond ETFs, the allocation side has been gradually reducing positions in convertible bonds. For example, since February, there have been significant single - day scale declines in the subscription and redemption of convertible bond ETF products, and the convertible bond holding scale of institutions such as public funds and insurance companies has also decreased [4][8]. - Equity market style shift: Since late March, the equity market style has gradually shifted from growth to value. The performance gap between the CSI 300 Index and the Guozheng 2000 Index has gradually narrowed. With less than 50% of the performance disclosed, the short - term preference for high - elasticity convertible bonds may be suppressed [4]. - Subtle changes in the convertible bond market: The issuance side has accelerated, with 10 convertible bonds announcing issuance and 5 announcing listing dates from March to the first week of April, with a total issuance scale of over 10 billion yuan. Some convertible bond companies have planned to participate in themes such as AI and robots, and many individual bonds have successfully promoted conversion in March. The scale of theme - related convertible bonds announcing forced redemptions this year accounts for nearly 50% of all announced forced - redemption convertible bonds [4]. Tariff Accelerates Market Adjustment - Tariff impact on the market: The "tariff storm" led to a rapid adjustment of the A - share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by more than 7% on the first trading day, and the price and valuation of convertible bonds were quickly compressed. However, the policy response was rapid, and the equity market quickly stabilized. At the same time, the price pressure of convertible bonds was cleared, and the cost - performance of the products was restored to a certain extent [4]. Current Cost - Performance of Convertible Bonds - Overall market situation: Since the market recovery on April 8, the index has returned to the level of early February. The weighted premium rate and price median have also completed part of the repair process after the tariff shock. For example, the 22% weighted premium rate in the 90 - 110 range corresponding to 122 yuan has basically completed the repair [4][23]. - Industry performance: The TMT and other growth sectors that performed well previously have shown a gradual recovery trend. The valuations of sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - ferrous metals have fallen to low quantiles [4][25]. - New bond performance: Due to the wait - and - see attitude of the liability side and the volatile equity market, the performance of new bonds on the first day of listing has been weak recently, which may have certain allocation cost - performance [4]. Outlook for the Future - Investment strategy: It is recommended to gradually try some cost - effective convertible bond varieties in small positions, with a style preference of value first and then growth [4][30]. - Industry investment lines: - Domestic demand policy reinforcement: Exclude sectors with excessive increases or high external demand in the consumption sector. Recommend expanding domestic demand (traditional consumption, new domestic - brand consumption, duty - free) and broad fiscal policies (construction, building materials, finance). Suggest paying attention to individual bonds such as Hefeng Convertible Bond and Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2 [4][30]. - New global game equilibrium: Chinese products flowing to countries with demand gaps are beneficial to global trade, such as oil and gas transportation [30]. - Oversold rebound of the technology sector: Many TMT stocks' valuations have fallen back to or close to the level before the spring rally. There are about 182 stocks with a year - to - date increase or decrease within ±3%, mainly distributed in semiconductor, software development, and other secondary industries. Suggest paying attention to individual bonds such as Lingyi Convertible Bond, Yirui Convertible Bond, and Zhenhua Convertible Bond [4][31].