房地产行业2025年3月统计局数据点评：单月销售与新开工降幅收窄，投资降幅扩大，4月中旬起建议关注地产板块行情

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Views - The report highlights that the sales area in March 2025 was 111 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, showing a narrowing of the sales decline compared to February [2][14]. - The total investment in real estate development in March 2025 was 918.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, which is a slight increase in the decline compared to February [8][11]. - The new construction area in March 2025 was 63.82 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 18.1%, although this decline has narrowed compared to February [8][18]. - The report suggests that from mid-April, attention should be paid to the real estate sector's market performance, as various policies are expected to stimulate demand and support recovery [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales of Commercial Housing - The sales area in March 2025 was 111 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, and the sales amount was 1.05 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [2][16]. - The average selling price of commercial housing in March was 9,475 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [9][16]. - The report anticipates a continued negative growth in new home sales for 2025, with expected year-on-year declines of 9% in sales area and 12% in sales amount [2][8]. 2. Inventory of Commercial Residential Properties - The broad inventory of commercial residential properties reached 1.7 billion square meters by the end of March, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.1% [3]. - The current housing inventory, which includes completed but unsold properties, was approximately 422 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3]. 3. Real Estate Development Investment, New Construction, and Completion - The total development investment in March was 918.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.0% [8][11]. - The new construction area in March was 63.82 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 18.1% [8][18]. - The completion area in March was 42.96 million square meters, down 11.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2010 [8][18]. 4. Developer Financing - The total funds available to real estate companies in March were 915.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% [5][18]. - Personal mortgage loans and domestic loans showed positive growth, indicating an improvement in bank lending [5][18]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller companies with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery of the second-hand housing market [8].