股指早报：关税谈判观察期，A股业绩报风险仍需注意-20250416

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Currently in the observation period after the escalation of tariff games, there is a risk of further escalation externally, while domestically, it is in the stage of waiting for macro - policy hedging. The risk of extreme tariff pressure from the outside has been gradually digested, but the risk of the performance reports of listed companies in late April has not been fully digested. The short - term market may still experience a shock and pullback. Although the "national team" unexpectedly supported the market on Tuesday, its intention needs to be observed. The domestic demand and technology sectors are still the key areas to focus on. An arbitrage strategy of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 is recommended, and short positions on CSI 1000 can be gradually closed according to market conditions during market pullbacks, while retaining long positions on CSI 300 according to one's own position [3][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in April was - 8.1%, higher than the expected - 14.5 and the previous value of - 20, indicating that the decline of the US manufacturing industry has slowed down. There has been no progress in the US - EU trade negotiations, and the EU expects the US to maintain its tariff policy. White House Press Secretary Levitt emphasized that Trump is willing to reach an agreement with China. Although the tariff negotiation is at a stalemate, there is a risk of escalation. Overnight, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, US Treasury yields declined, gold prices rose, the three major US stock indexes fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Continued monitoring of tariff news is needed as it will increase asset volatility [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.13%. The market showed a narrow - range index fluctuation and a differentiated stock performance. The banking sector led the gains, indicating an attempt to stabilize the index, but market risk appetite did not significantly recover. The "national team" intervened to support the market during the intraday index pullback, mainly focusing on the CSI 300, while the CSI 2000 showed no action, indicating a clear intention to stabilize the index. The beauty care, banking, household appliances, textile and apparel, and media sectors led the gains, while the military, commerce and retail, electronics, and steel sectors led the losses. There were 2,417 rising stocks and 2,811 falling stocks in the entire market [2][6] 1.3 Important News - Trump stated that the suspension of tariffs is for a transition period and for flexibility, and will accelerate the issuance of all necessary licenses to NVIDIA, which faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to US export restrictions, and its stock price fell 6% after - hours [7] - The US launched an investigation into the national security risks posed by key minerals and their derivatives that rely on imported processing [7] - US Vice - President Vance said that the US and the UK are likely to reach a "great trade agreement" [8] - Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for six months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the US Texas border came to a halt. The EU expects the US to maintain its tariffs due to little progress in negotiations [8][9] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized during a research trip in Beijing that greater efforts should be made to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. The Chinese real estate market still has significant development potential in the current and future periods [9] - China and Vietnam issued a joint statement on deepening their comprehensive strategic partnership and accelerating the construction of a China - Vietnam community with a shared future of strategic significance [9] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a symposium on preventing "involution - style" vicious competition in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage, and initially reviewed an initiative for the healthy development of the inverter and energy storage industries [9] - A new national standard for electric vehicle batteries was announced, requiring no fire or explosion in thermal diffusion tests [10] 1.4 Today's Strategy - As mentioned in the core view, focus on domestic demand and technology sectors, and adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 [3][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, trading volume, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It presents the performance of various spot market indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and changes in trading volumes. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on indexes like the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, and provides data on index valuations, trading volumes, and turnover rates [32][33][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - It shows the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the SHIBOR interest rate levels [51]