银河期货尿素日报-20250416

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (April 16, 2025) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report - Report Focus: Urea Market Analysis Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The domestic mainstream area urea spot factory - quoted price continues to decline, and the transaction is weak. In the short - term, the urea futures and spot prices are expected to decline weakly [5]. Group 4: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures completed the roll - over (switched to the 09 contract), with a price of 1767 (-13/-0.73%) [3]. - Spot Market: The ex - factory price continued to decline, and the transaction was weak. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1830 - 1850 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1830 - 1840 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1830 - 1840 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1820 - 1830 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [3]. Group 5: Important Information - On April 16, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.10 tons, a decrease of 0.28 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.13 tons from the same period last year. The daily start - up rate was 84.91%, a 1.91% increase from 83.00% in the same period last year [4]. Group 6: Logic Analysis - Price Trend: The ex - factory prices in different regions showed different trends. Shandong was expected to be stable, Henan was expected to decline, and the delivery area and surrounding areas were expected to continue to decline [5]. - Supply: Some devices started maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period [5]. - Demand: Domestic legal inspections were still strict, with no possibility of export. The enthusiasm for compound fertilizer production in Central and North China decreased, and the demand for raw material urea declined [5]. - Inventory: The total inventory decreased from a high of 1.8 million tons to around 700,000 tons, but the inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [5]. Group 7: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation [6] - Arbitrage: Long - term layout of 9 - 1 positive spread below 0 [7] - Options: Double - selling strategy [7] Group 8: Related Charts - The report includes charts on urea production, start - up rate, inventory, etc., from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Longzhong, Zhuochuang, and Galaxy Futures [10][14]