国元点睛

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic futures market shows a mixed performance with more contracts declining than rising. Some commodities are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes, leading to different price trends. For example, eggs and gold have significant increases, while container shipping to Europe and some agricultural products have large drops [4]. 3. Summary by Contracts Metals - Copper (SHFE 2506): Oscillated and closed down. Macro factors interfere, but supply supports, and there is room for upward repair. Resistance at 82,000 [5]. - Aluminum (SHFE 2506): Oscillated and closed down. Alumina price drops, but demand expectation is good, and short - term upward repair is expected. Resistance at 20,000 [7]. - Lead (SHFE 2505): Oscillated and declined. Affected by macro sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Suggested to wait and see. Resistance at 17,800, support at 16,400 [11]. - Lithium Carbonate (GFEX 2505): Oscillated and declined. Due to trade policy uncertainty, downstream enterprises reduce inventory, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected. Resistance at 80,000, support at 70,000 [14]. - Iron Ore (DCE 2509): The main contract declined. Terminal demand growth slows, but macro sentiment improves, with short - term oscillation. Pressure at 750, support at 650 [16]. - Coking Coal (DCE 2509): Oscillated and declined. High inventory and mine resumption lead to price oscillation. Pressure at 900, support at 850 [18]. - Coke (DCE 2509): Oscillated and declined. Faster inventory reduction and a price increase implementation lead to short - term oscillation. Pressure at 1,600, support at 1,400 [20]. - Rebar (SHFE 2510): Oscillated and declined. Profit shrinks and demand growth slows, with short - term oscillation. Pressure at 3,400, support at 3,000 [22]. - Nickel (SHFE 2505): Oscillated and rose. Price returns to fundamentals, and upstream supports, with short - term strong oscillation. Pressure at 125,000, support at 115,000 [24]. - Stainless Steel (SHFE 2506): Oscillated and declined. Cost support strengthens, with short - term oscillation. Pressure at 13,500, support at 12,500 [27]. Chemicals - Natural Rubber (SHFE 2509): Under short - selling pressure, the price is weak below 15,000 due to weak fundamentals [29]. - PTA (CZCE 2509): Affected by cost and supply - demand, it is weak below the 5 - day moving average [30]. - Ethylene Glycol (DCE 2509): Under short - selling pressure, the market center drops. Watch for effective break - through below 4,200 [31]. - Plastic (DCE 2509): Affected by crude oil and supply - demand, it is weak below the 5 - day moving average [33]. - PP (DCE 2509): Affected by cost and demand, a bearish view is recommended [34]. - Soda Ash (CZCE 2509): Oscillated and declined. With new device commissioning approaching, it oscillates down around 1,300 [36]. - Glass (CZCE 2509): Oscillated and declined, with short - term downward oscillation around 1,200 [38]. - Urea (CZCE 2509): Oscillated down, with short - term wide - range oscillation around 1,800 [40]. - Caustic Soda (CZCE 2509): Oscillated and declined. Considering the falling spot price, it oscillates at a low level [41]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal (DCE 2509): Fell 2.62% due to short - selling. Resistance at 3,000, support at MA10 [43]. - Rapeseed Meal (CZCE 2509): Fell over 4% with 44,000 additional contracts. Resistance at 2,600, support at MA20 [45]. - Soybean Oil (DCE 2509): Fell 0.23%. Supply is tight now, but imports will increase. Support at 7,800, resistance at 8,300 [48]. - Palm Oil (DCE 2509): Fell 0.62%. Supply is expected to increase, but exports support. Support at 8,400, resistance at 9,200 [51]. - Rapeseed Oil (CZCE 2509): Rose 0.13%. Fewer purchases in Q2 and Q3 and strong price - holding by mills support the price. Support at 8,500, resistance at 9,000 [52]. - Corn (DCE 2507): Oscillated with limited range. Processing demand is weak. Support at 2,200, resistance at 2,300 [54]. - Pork (DCE 2509): Fell 1.17%. Feed cost may rise, but supply - demand is still loose. Next - day range 14,200 - 14,350, support at 13,800, resistance at 14,500 [55]. - Apples (CZCE 2510): Rose 0.39%. New - season production may increase, but current sales are good. A long - position strategy at low prices is recommended. Support at 7,500, resistance at 8,000 [58]. - Eggs (DCE 2506): Rose 2.87%. Feed cost and short - term restocking support the near - term price, but supply is abundant in the medium - term. Next - day range 3,070 - 3,100, support at 3,000, resistance at 3,200 [60]. - Cotton (CZCE 2509): Fell 0.7%. Affected by tariffs in the short - term, and by planting area in the medium - term. Support at 12,500, resistance at 13,000 [61]. - Sugar (CZCE 2509): Fell 0.42%. Brazil's new season may increase production, and India's production is revised down. Support at 5,850, resistance at 6,200 [63]. - Peanuts (CZCE 2505): Fell 0.76%. There is short - term support, but supply pressure may increase later. Support at 7,800, resistance at 8,200 [64]. - Logs (DCE 2507): Fell 0.54%. Spot price is weak, but long - term wide - range oscillation is expected. Support at 800, resistance at 850 [66]. Energy - Crude Oil (INE 2505): Fell 1.01%. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ plan, but may rebound slightly in the short - term. Support at 400, resistance at 500 [67]. - Fuel Oil (SHFE 2507): Fell 1.8%. High - sulfur fuel oil rebounds with crude oil, and supply tightness eases. Support at 2,500, resistance at 3,000 [69]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe (INE 2506): Fell 6.21%. The Shanghai export container settlement rate index for Europe drops, and shipping companies face pressure [71].