Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose over 4%, industrial silicon nearly 3%, rapeseed meal and PX over 1%. On the downside, the container shipping index (European line) dropped nearly 2%, and SC crude oil, glass, coking coal, and methanol fell over 1% [4]. - Different futures contracts have various trends and forecasts based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. For example, copper prices may face short - term upward risks but also callback risks; aluminum prices will continue to operate at a high level in the short term; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weak and volatile [5][6][11]. 3. Summary by Futures Contracts Metal Futures - **Copper (沪铜2508合约)**: Closed down today. Short - term upward risk is high, and there is a callback risk. Support level is 78300 [5]. - **Aluminum (沪铝2508合约)**: Flat compared to yesterday. Cost support weakened, but due to macro interference, short - term prices will remain high. Resistance level is 20000 [6]. - **Lead (沪铅2508合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. With demand recovery and supply reduction, prices are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term buying on dips is recommended. Resistance is 17200, support is 16400 [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂2509合约)**: Weak and volatile. With weakening demand and high supply, the fundamental surplus remains. Short - term selling on rallies is recommended. Resistance is 64000 [11]. - **Iron Ore (铁矿2509合约)**: The main contract rose. With expected decline in molten iron production and off - season demand, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 750, support is 650 [13]. - **Coking Coal (焦煤2509合约)**: Fell in a volatile manner. Some mines cut production. Pay attention to the third - quarter pricing of Mongolian coal. It will operate in a volatile range. Pressure is 900, support is 700 [15]. - **Coke (焦炭2509合约)**: Fell in a volatile manner. After the fourth price cut, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 1500, support is 1100 [16]. - **Rebar (螺纹2510合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. High exports support, but supply pressure emerges. It will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 3100, support is 2900 [17]. - **Nickel (沪镍2507合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. With upstream price support and weakening demand, it is short - term strong and volatile. Pressure is 125000, support is 115000 [19][20]. - **Stainless Steel (不锈钢2508合约)**: Rose in a volatile manner. With reduced production and weakening downstream expectations, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 13000, support is 12200 [21]. Chemical Futures - **Natural Rubber (天胶2509合约)**: The price center dropped. With a lack of short - term drivers, it is likely to oscillate below the 40 - day moving average [24]. - **PTA (PTA2509合约)**: Closed with a doji at 4800. Short - term fundamentals change little, and the market follows cost fluctuations [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol (乙二醇2509合约)**: Fell continuously under short - position increase. There is an expectation to test lower lows. It will oscillate above if it cannot break through effectively [27]. - **Plastic (塑料2509合约)**: Closed down under the 10 - day moving average. With a lack of short - term drivers, it will oscillate below the 10 - day moving average [29]. - **Polypropylene (聚丙烯2509合约)**: Oscillated around the 60 - day moving average. Short - term fundamentals change little, and it will mainly oscillate [30]. - **Soda Ash (纯碱2509合约)**: Fell 0.92% on June 30, with an increase of 79,300 lots. Some device overhauls are expected to boost the market. It is expected to rise in a short - term volatile manner, but the upward momentum is limited [31]. - **Glass (玻璃2509合约)**: Fell 1.28% on June 30, with an increase of 30,700 lots. After the market digested policy benefits, it will likely operate in a short - term range due to shipping pressure and cooling policy speculation [32]. - **Urea (尿素2509合约)**: Fell 0.64% on June 30, with an increase of 1,200 lots. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda (烧碱2509合约)**: Fell 0.47% on June 30, with an increase of 1,100 lots. With falling spot prices, it will rise in a short - term volatile manner [37]. Agricultural Futures - **Soybean Meal (豆粕2509合约)**: Rose 0.78% and reduced positions by 53,000 lots. Traders adjusted positions before the key report. Global supply is expected to be abundant. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 3100 [40]. - **Rapeseed Meal (菜粕2509合约)**: Rose 1.14%. Both 2509 and 2601 contracts reduced positions by over 10,000 lots. Short - covering drove the price up. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 2700 [43]. - **Soybean Oil (豆油2509合约)**: Fell 0.22%. With high inventory pressure, the market is cautious. Support is 7600, pressure is 8300 [44]. - **Palm Oil (棕榈油2509合约)**: Fell 0.43%. With high inventory pressure, the market is cautious. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 9000 [46]. - **Corn (玉米2509合约)**: Weak and volatile. The fundamentals are in a "lean period". It will operate in a range. Support is 2200, pressure is 2450 [49]. - **Live Pig (生猪2509合约)**: Fell 0.86%. Supply is high, and demand is weak in the short term. But the medium - term price may rebound. The next - day range is 13700 - 14000. Support is 13500, pressure is 14000 [50]. - **Apple (苹果2510合约)**: Fell 0.1%. The spot market has weak supply and demand. The new - season production reduction is within 10%. It will oscillate. Pressure is 8000, support is 7500 [51]. - **Egg (鸡蛋2508合约)**: Rose 0.68%. Demand for low - price replenishment increased, but supply is still high. It will oscillate at a low level. The next - day range is 3530 - 3600. Pressure is 3700, support is 3500 [52]. - **Cotton (棉花2509合约)**: The closing price was flat. If the commercial inventory continues to decline, there may be speculation on inventory in the third quarter. The USDA report is positive. Pay attention to weather conditions. Pressure is 14000, support is 13500 [54]. - **Sugar (白糖2509合约)**: Rose 0.35%. Domestic fundamentals are positive, but raw sugar is still low. There is a potential for decline. Pressure is 5850, support is 5700 [56]. - **Peanut (花生2510合约)**: Fell 0.17%. Although the hype in the producing area has cooled down, prices are unlikely to fall sharply. It will adjust slightly downward. Pressure is 8500, support is 8000 [57]. - **Log (原木2509合约)**: Fell 0.38%. Spot prices are stable. It will oscillate in the off - season. Pay attention to delivery and capital movements. Pressure is 850, support is 750 [58]. Energy Futures - **Crude Oil (原油2508合约)**: Fell 1.1%. After the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the risk premium decreased. Pressure is 500, support is 450 [59]. - **Fuel Oil (燃料油2509合约)**: Fell 0.5%. It followed the decline of crude oil. Pressure is 3000, support is 2800 [60]. Shipping Futures - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) (集运欧线2508合约)**: Fell 1.92% on June 30. The Shanghai container shipping index showed a split trend. The index will gradually turn to oscillation [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends, with aluminum alloy rising over 4% and styrene (EB) rising over 2%. In terms of declines, stainless steel (SS), zinc, urea, and nickel fell over 1% [4]. - The macro - environment has some interference on copper prices, but supply supports copper prices, and copper prices will continue to operate at a high level. Aluminum prices will also remain high in the short - term despite the weakening cost support. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and lithium prices will have a narrow - range oscillation. Iron ore, coking coal, and other commodities will have short - term oscillations [6][8][10][13]. 3. Summary by Contracts Metal Contracts - **沪铜2507合约 (Shanghai Copper 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated slightly down today. Macro factors interfere, but supply supports. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 78,500 [6]. - **沪铝2507合约 (Shanghai Aluminum 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated and closed down. Alumina price dropped, weakening cost support, but demand is expected to pick up. Will continue to operate at a high level, with a support level of 20,000 [8]. - **沪铅2507合约 (Shanghai Lead 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Considering the weakening downstream demand and stable supply, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. Resistance is 17,200, and support is 16,400 [10]. - **碳酸锂2507合约 (Lithium Carbonate 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated up today. Downstream production in June exceeded expectations, but supply is expected to increase, and the fundamentals remain in surplus. Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, short - term wait - and - see. Resistance is 64,000 [13]. - **沪镍2507合约 (Shanghai Nickel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Upstream price support, but demand is weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 125,000, and support is 120,000 [22]. - **不锈钢2507合约 (Stainless Steel 2507 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Production decreased, and downstream expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Resistance is 13,500, and support is 12,500 [23]. Energy and Chemical Contracts - **铁矿2509合约 (Iron Ore 2509 Contract)**: The main contract dropped. Iron water production decreased for three consecutive weeks, and demand expectations are weak. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 700, and support is 600 [15]. - **焦煤2509合约 (Coking Coal 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. There is an increased policy risk for Mongolian coal exports, but supply is still loose. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 800, and support is 600 [16]. - **焦炭2509合约 (Coke 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated up. Cost support weakened, and three rounds of price cuts were implemented. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 1,500, and support is 1,100 [18]. - **螺纹2510合约 (Rebar 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated down. Market trading weakened, and iron water production decreased. Short - term oscillation. Pressure is 3,100, and support is 2,900 [20]. - **天胶2509合约 (Natural Rubber 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly rose within the day, but the increase was limited. The short - term market lacks major positive support, and the price will oscillate at a low level [25]. - **PTA2509合约 (PTA 2509 Contract)**: Continued the previous oscillation pattern within the day. The current supply - demand fundamentals have little change, and the market follows the trend of crude oil [28]. - **EG2509合约 (Ethylene Glycol 2509 Contract)**: Continued to oscillate at a low level within the day. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the price oscillates around the 40 - day moving average [30]. - **塑料2509合约 (Plastic 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The short - term market may test the pressure of the 20 - day and 40 - day moving averages. If it cannot break through effectively, it will oscillate at a low level [32]. - **PP2509合约 (Polypropylene 2509 Contract)**: The price rebounded slightly due to short - covering, but the increase was limited. The current market lacks major positive guidance, and the price will oscillate at a low level [35]. - **纯碱2509合约 (Soda Ash 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.41% within the day and reduced positions by 64,797 lots. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the sustainability needs to be observed [36]. - **玻璃2509合约 (Glass 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 0.7% within the day and reduced positions by 16,128 lots. The environmental protection coal - to - gas requirement in Shahe is unfavorable to production. It stopped falling and rebounded, but the total production capacity of the relevant devices is limited, so the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed [40]. - **尿素2509合约 (Urea 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it dropped 1.24% within the day and increased positions by 2,976 lots. The export is settled, and the positive factors are exhausted. The price will maintain a bearish trend [42]. - **烧碱2509合约 (Caustic Soda 2509 Contract)**: On June 10, 2025, it oscillated within the day and reduced positions by 17,752 lots. Short - term oscillation and decline [43]. Agricultural Contracts - **豆粕2509合约 (Soybean Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to increase positions by 27,000 lots and closed up 0.66%. The supply of soybean meal continues to increase, but the procurement enthusiasm of middle - and - downstream enterprises is average. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 3,000 [45]. - **菜粕2509合约 (Rapeseed Meal 2509 Contract)**: Domestic two - meal contracts increased positions and prices. The main 2509 contract of rapeseed meal increased positions by more than 10,000 lots for the first time in a month and closed up 1.08%. As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China decreased to 14,000 tons. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 2,700 [47]. - **豆油2509合约 (Soybean Oil 2509 Contract)**: Narrowly oscillated. The main contract reached a more than two - week high of 7,796 yuan/ton before noon and then oscillated down, closing down 0.05%. The high soybean crushing volume of oil mills leads to large soybean oil output, and the supply is expected to be loose. Support: 7,600, Pressure: 8,300 [50]. - **棕榈油2509合约 (Palm Oil 2509 Contract)**: The BMD crude palm oil futures declined on Tuesday. During the production - increasing season, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased again in May, but the export increased more than expected. Affected by the double - increase of production and inventory, the futures oscillated weakly. Support: wait - and - see, Pressure: 9,000 [53]. - **菜油2509合约 (Rapeseed Oil 2509 Contract)**: Oscillated today, and the main contract closed up 0.40%. As of the 23rd week, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 882,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 75.42%. Support: 8,900, Pressure: 9,700 [55]. - **玉米2507合约 (Corn 2507 Contract)**: Dalian corn futures continued to rise today, reaching a one - month high. The main contract closed at 2,379 points, up 1.19%. The news of Henan starting the minimum purchase price implementation plan for wheat continued to boost the corn futures price. Support: 2,200, Pressure: 2,450 [56]. - **生猪2509合约 (Live Pig 2509 Contract)**: The main 09 contract rose 1.08% today. The supply is in the capacity - realization period, and the pressure of short - term supply increases. After the festival, the demand declines, and the fundamentals are under pressure. However, the downside space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level. The predicted range for the next trading day is 13,550 - 13,650. Support: 13,500, Pressure: 14,000 [57][58]. - **苹果2510合约 (Apple 2510 Contract)**: Oscillated within the day, with a decline of 0.46%. The spot market faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and the spot price is stable in the short - term. The expectation of a large - scale production reduction is not high, and the price center moves down. Support: 7,500, Pressure: 8,000 [60]. - **鸡蛋2507合约 (Egg 2507 Contract)**: Rose 0.25% today. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the supply continues to be released. After the festival, the demand declines, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. It is expected to oscillate weakly. The predicted range for the next trading day is 2,830 - 2,860. Support: 2,800, Pressure: 3,000 [61]. - **棉花2509合约 (Cotton 2509 Contract)**: The CF2509 contract closed up 0.41%. By the end of May, China's cotton commercial inventory was still decreasing but remained higher than last year. If the inventory continues to decline, there may be speculation about inventory in the third quarter. The downstream operating rate has declined again, and the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is high. Pay attention to the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report in June. Support: 13,000, Pressure: 13,500 [64]. - **白糖2509合约 (Sugar 2509 Contract)**: The SR2509 contract closed down 0.24%. The decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of May was far less than expected, providing no upward drive for raw sugar. Chinese sugar - making groups sold well in April and have a willingness to support prices, but there is an expectation of increased imports after June, which may suppress the Zhengzhou sugar futures price. Support: 5,750, Pressure: 5,850 [66]. - **花生2510合约 (Peanut 2510 Contract)**: The PK2510 contract closed down 0.29%. The sowing rhythm and reduced import volume may affect the supply of the 10 - contract, but peanuts are still in the expansion - planting cycle, and the supply is not tight. The height of the unilateral rebound is restricted. Support: 8,300, Pressure: 8,500 [67]. - **原木2507合约 (Log 2507 Contract)**: The LG2507 contract closed down 0.06%. The fundamentals of logs have no prominent contradictions, and domestic traders are generally at a loss due to the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets. Pay attention to the spot prices at home and abroad and the arrival rhythm of subsequent shipments and port pressure. The price has no upward drive for now and is expected to oscillate. Support: 750, Pressure: 800 [68][69]. Energy - Related Contracts - **原油2507合约 (Crude Oil 2507 Contract)**: The SC2507 contract rose 1.27%. The increase in production of OPEC+ countries in July is 411,000 barrels per day, which is in line with expectations. It is in a state of less - than - expected negative impact and may continue to rebound in the short - term. Support: 400, Pressure: 470 [70]. - **燃料油2507合约 (Fuel Oil 2507 Contract)**: The FU2507 contract closed up 0.85%. Supported by seasonal power - generation demand and the strong downstream marine fuel oil market, the Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short - term. However, the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed, and the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in May will put pressure on the operating rate of secondary processing units. Support: 2,500, Pressure: 3,000 [71]. Shipping Contract - **集运欧线2508合约 (Container Shipping to Europe 2508 Contract)**: On June 10, the 8 - month contract of container shipping to Europe dropped 0.95%, reporting 2,042.1 points. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index rebounded significantly. The settlement freight index of European routes rose to 1,622.81 points, a month - on - month increase of 29.5%; the settlement freight index of US - West routes rose to 2,185.08 points, an increase of 27.2%. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen [73].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic futures market shows a mixed performance with more contracts declining than rising. Some commodities are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes, leading to different price trends. For example, eggs and gold have significant increases, while container shipping to Europe and some agricultural products have large drops [4]. 3. Summary by Contracts Metals - **Copper (SHFE 2506)**: Oscillated and closed down. Macro factors interfere, but supply supports, and there is room for upward repair. Resistance at 82,000 [5]. - **Aluminum (SHFE 2506)**: Oscillated and closed down. Alumina price drops, but demand expectation is good, and short - term upward repair is expected. Resistance at 20,000 [7]. - **Lead (SHFE 2505)**: Oscillated and declined. Affected by macro sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Suggested to wait and see. Resistance at 17,800, support at 16,400 [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate (GFEX 2505)**: Oscillated and declined. Due to trade policy uncertainty, downstream enterprises reduce inventory, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected. Resistance at 80,000, support at 70,000 [14]. - **Iron Ore (DCE 2509)**: The main contract declined. Terminal demand growth slows, but macro sentiment improves, with short - term oscillation. Pressure at 750, support at 650 [16]. - **Coking Coal (DCE 2509)**: Oscillated and declined. High inventory and mine resumption lead to price oscillation. Pressure at 900, support at 850 [18]. - **Coke (DCE 2509)**: Oscillated and declined. Faster inventory reduction and a price increase implementation lead to short - term oscillation. Pressure at 1,600, support at 1,400 [20]. - **Rebar (SHFE 2510)**: Oscillated and declined. Profit shrinks and demand growth slows, with short - term oscillation. Pressure at 3,400, support at 3,000 [22]. - **Nickel (SHFE 2505)**: Oscillated and rose. Price returns to fundamentals, and upstream supports, with short - term strong oscillation. Pressure at 125,000, support at 115,000 [24]. - **Stainless Steel (SHFE 2506)**: Oscillated and declined. Cost support strengthens, with short - term oscillation. Pressure at 13,500, support at 12,500 [27]. Chemicals - **Natural Rubber (SHFE 2509)**: Under short - selling pressure, the price is weak below 15,000 due to weak fundamentals [29]. - **PTA (CZCE 2509)**: Affected by cost and supply - demand, it is weak below the 5 - day moving average [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol (DCE 2509)**: Under short - selling pressure, the market center drops. Watch for effective break - through below 4,200 [31]. - **Plastic (DCE 2509)**: Affected by crude oil and supply - demand, it is weak below the 5 - day moving average [33]. - **PP (DCE 2509)**: Affected by cost and demand, a bearish view is recommended [34]. - **Soda Ash (CZCE 2509)**: Oscillated and declined. With new device commissioning approaching, it oscillates down around 1,300 [36]. - **Glass (CZCE 2509)**: Oscillated and declined, with short - term downward oscillation around 1,200 [38]. - **Urea (CZCE 2509)**: Oscillated down, with short - term wide - range oscillation around 1,800 [40]. - **Caustic Soda (CZCE 2509)**: Oscillated and declined. Considering the falling spot price, it oscillates at a low level [41]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (DCE 2509)**: Fell 2.62% due to short - selling. Resistance at 3,000, support at MA10 [43]. - **Rapeseed Meal (CZCE 2509)**: Fell over 4% with 44,000 additional contracts. Resistance at 2,600, support at MA20 [45]. - **Soybean Oil (DCE 2509)**: Fell 0.23%. Supply is tight now, but imports will increase. Support at 7,800, resistance at 8,300 [48]. - **Palm Oil (DCE 2509)**: Fell 0.62%. Supply is expected to increase, but exports support. Support at 8,400, resistance at 9,200 [51]. - **Rapeseed Oil (CZCE 2509)**: Rose 0.13%. Fewer purchases in Q2 and Q3 and strong price - holding by mills support the price. Support at 8,500, resistance at 9,000 [52]. - **Corn (DCE 2507)**: Oscillated with limited range. Processing demand is weak. Support at 2,200, resistance at 2,300 [54]. - **Pork (DCE 2509)**: Fell 1.17%. Feed cost may rise, but supply - demand is still loose. Next - day range 14,200 - 14,350, support at 13,800, resistance at 14,500 [55]. - **Apples (CZCE 2510)**: Rose 0.39%. New - season production may increase, but current sales are good. A long - position strategy at low prices is recommended. Support at 7,500, resistance at 8,000 [58]. - **Eggs (DCE 2506)**: Rose 2.87%. Feed cost and short - term restocking support the near - term price, but supply is abundant in the medium - term. Next - day range 3,070 - 3,100, support at 3,000, resistance at 3,200 [60]. - **Cotton (CZCE 2509)**: Fell 0.7%. Affected by tariffs in the short - term, and by planting area in the medium - term. Support at 12,500, resistance at 13,000 [61]. - **Sugar (CZCE 2509)**: Fell 0.42%. Brazil's new season may increase production, and India's production is revised down. Support at 5,850, resistance at 6,200 [63]. - **Peanuts (CZCE 2505)**: Fell 0.76%. There is short - term support, but supply pressure may increase later. Support at 7,800, resistance at 8,200 [64]. - **Logs (DCE 2507)**: Fell 0.54%. Spot price is weak, but long - term wide - range oscillation is expected. Support at 800, resistance at 850 [66]. Energy - **Crude Oil (INE 2505)**: Fell 1.01%. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ plan, but may rebound slightly in the short - term. Support at 400, resistance at 500 [67]. - **Fuel Oil (SHFE 2507)**: Fell 1.8%. High - sulfur fuel oil rebounds with crude oil, and supply tightness eases. Support at 2,500, resistance at 3,000 [69]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe (INE 2506)**: Fell 6.21%. The Shanghai export container settlement rate index for Europe drops, and shipping companies face pressure [71].