银河期货煤炭日报-20250416

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Coal Daily Report, April 16, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Commodity Research, Energy and Chemical Industry R & D Report [1][8] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On April 16, the port market was mainly stagnant, and traders' quotes remained stable. The market quotes for 5500 - kcal coal were 670 - 675 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal coal were 595 - 600 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal coal were 525 - 530 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price ranges for non - electric enterprise coal [3]. Group 3: Important News - Coal Production: In March, the raw coal output of above - scale industries was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, and the growth rate was 1.9 percentage points faster than that from January to February. From January to March, the raw coal output of above - scale industries was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [4]. Group 4: Logic Analysis Supply - Mine Production: With the stabilization of pit - mouth prices, coal mines basically resumed normal production. As of April 15, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions were 71% and 48% respectively, and the daily coal output in the two cities was around 3.9 - 4 million tons. The overall domestic supply was still abundant [5]. Demand - Power Plant Demand: Power plant daily consumption continued to decline, and the inventory level was at a medium - high level. Most power plants had low procurement willingness, and most of the small - volume purchases were based on rigid demand and price pressure. - Non - power Demand: The cement operating rate at the non - power end hovered at a low level. The restart of methanol and urea maintenance devices led to a high - level operation of the coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea operating rates, and the overall demand for chemical coal was acceptable, providing stable support for coal prices in the pit - mouth area [5]. Inventory - Port Inventory: The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway remained at 1 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau dropped to 30 trains. Port inventory continued to accumulate passively. As of April 16, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was around 30 million tons, reaching a record high [5]. - Power Plant Inventory: The daily consumption of coastal power plants decreased seasonally, and the inventory reduction was slow. The inventory of inland power plants remained high, resulting in the total inventory of national power plants remaining at a high level compared with the same period in previous years, and the inventory reduction speed was slow [5]. Price Forecast - Overall: In mid - April, the coal production in the main producing areas recovered, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions were stable at a high level, and the daily output increased to 4 million tons. The power plant inventory reduction was slow, and due to the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintained rigid demand procurement. The port inventory increased passively, and the available resources were abundant. The national temperature was higher than the same period, the power plant daily consumption decreased seasonally, the coal consumption was average compared with the same period, the inventory available days were high, and the port FOB price was weakly stable. In the pit - mouth area, the operating rates of coal - chemical products were high, the demand for chemical coal was acceptable, but the support from power plant long - term agreements weakened. However, the import was in an inverted state, and the import volume of coal decreased significantly. It is expected that coal prices will be mainly weakly stable [5]. Group 5: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory and daily consumption data of different ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc., as well as the inventory, daily consumption and available days data of coastal 8 - province power plants, inland 17 - province power plants and national power plants [9][13]