开门红落地，政策或从择机到加力

Economic Growth - Q1 GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.2%[1] - The nominal GDP growth was 4.59%, close to the previous quarter's 4.62%[1] - The GDP deflator remained around -0.8%, indicating stable price levels[1] Industrial and Export Performance - March industrial output growth accelerated to 6.8%, up from 5.7% in January-February[1] - Exports in March increased by 7.7%, contributing approximately 0.84% to industrial revenue growth[2] - Industrial added value growth improved by 1.8 percentage points compared to January-February[2] Retail Sector Insights - Retail sales growth in March reached 5.9%, the highest since early last year[3] - The adjustment of last year's retail base indicates a downward revision of approximately 361 million yuan, affecting the growth rate by about 0.9 percentage points[3] - The "trade-in" policy boosted retail growth by approximately 1.6 percentage points, contributing significantly to the overall increase[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in January-March grew by 4.2%, with private investment accelerating to 0.4%[5] - Equipment and tool purchases accounted for 64.6% of total investment growth, reflecting a strong recovery in this sector[5] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate sales in March showed a month-on-month increase of 3.5% in area and 2.7% in value, outperforming the average of the past three years[6] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for real estate investment was 9.9%, although new construction area decreased by 24.4%[6] Consumer Behavior - The ratio of per capita consumption expenditure to disposable income was 63.1%, lower than in previous years[9] - Urban consumption rates were particularly low at 58.9%, indicating a significant disparity in consumer behavior between urban and rural areas[9] Policy Outlook - The economic performance in Q1 suggests a lower necessity for interest rate cuts, but external factors like U.S. tariffs may prompt policy adjustments[10] - Potential monetary easing measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, may be implemented in late April or May[10]