2025年4月第2周：债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告：外贸型行业生产放缓

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of export - oriented industries is slowing down, with mixed performance in different production sectors such as power plants, blast furnaces, tires, and textile looms [1][5]. - The real - estate market sales continue to diverge, with first - tier cities improving while second - and third - tier cities are weak. The auto market retail shows stable performance, and prices of different commodities like steel, cement, glass, and shipping freight rates have different trends [2][5]. - In terms of inflation, the CPI shows stable pork prices and a mild decline in the agricultural product price index, while the PPI sees an oversold rebound in oil prices, with copper prices rising and aluminum prices falling [3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Slowdown in Production of Export - Oriented Industries 3.1.1 Production: Slowdown in Production of Export - Oriented Industries - Power Plant Consumption: Power plant daily consumption fluctuates at a low level. On April 15, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 75.5 million tons, down 0.6% from April 8. On April 10, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 185.7 million tons, up 0.7% from April 2 [5][10]. - Blast Furnace Operating Rate: The blast furnace operating rate has reached a nearly one - year high. On April 11, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from April 4, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from April 4. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.1%, up 3.8 percentage points from April 4 [5][15]. - Tire Operating Rate: The decline in the tire operating rate has widened. On April 10, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 66.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from April 3, and the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 78.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from April 3. The operating rate of textile looms in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region has accelerated its decline [5][18]. 3.1.2 Demand: Continued Divergence in Real - Estate Market Sales - Real - Estate Market: From April 1 - 15, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 194,000 square meters, down 14.0% from the same period in March, 11.3% from the same period in April last year, 51.0% from the same period in April 2023, and 34.1% from the same period in April 2022. Sales in first - tier cities continue to improve, while those in second - and third - tier cities are weak [5][22]. - Auto Market: In April, auto retail sales increased by 8% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year. The auto market is gradually recovering from the low base caused by the price war in spring 2024 [5][25]. - Steel Prices: Steel prices rebounded. On April 15, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 1.6%, 1.9%, 0.3%, and decreased by 0.8% respectively compared with April 8. Steel inventories continued to decline [5][31]. - Cement Prices: Cement prices weakened again. On April 15, the national cement price index decreased by 1.2% compared with April 8. However, the year - on - year increase in cement prices has widened [5][32]. - Glass Prices: Glass prices continued to weaken. On April 15, the active glass futures contract price was 1,148 yuan per ton, down 4.3% from April 8 [5][38]. - Shipping Freight Rates: The container shipping freight rate index showed little fluctuation. On April 11, the CCFI index increased by 0.4% compared with April 3, and the SCFI index increased by 0.1% [5][42]. 3.2 Inflation: Oversold Rebound in Oil Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Stable Pork Prices - Pork Prices: Pork prices remained stable. On April 15, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.6 yuan per kilogram, up 0.05% from April 8. The month - on - month decline has narrowed [5][48]. - Agricultural Product Price Index: The agricultural product price index declined moderately. On April 15, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.7% compared with April 8. Different agricultural products had different price trends [5][53]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oversold Rebound in Oil Prices - Oil Prices: Oil prices rebounded from an oversold situation. On April 15, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 66.6 and 61.3 US dollars per barrel respectively, up 0.3 and 2.9% respectively compared with April 8. However, trade concerns and rapid capacity release still suppress oil prices [5][56]. - Copper and Aluminum Prices: Copper prices rose while aluminum prices fell. On April 15, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.8% and decreased by 1.3% respectively compared with April 8 [5][60]. - Industrial Product Prices: Most industrial product prices weakened in April. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices widened, while the year - on - year increase of cement prices widened [5][62].