银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250416

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment initially recovered due to the Trump administration's slight loosening in electronics - related tariff policies, but turned pessimistic as the latest US - EU trade negotiations stalled, pushing gold to a new all - time high. In the short to medium term, the impact of the trade war remains highly uncertain, and major - power games will continue to fluctuate. Gold, with its good hedging properties, is likely to rise easily and fall hard, and silver may also be supported by gold and show a strong - side oscillation [8]. Summary by Directory Market Review - In the precious metals market, London gold broke through the $3300 mark, reaching a record high of $3317.89 and then falling back to around $3295. London silver also rose and is trading around $32.9. Affected by the overseas market, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 2.68% at 781.6 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.5% at 8233 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, trading around 99.6 [4]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly, trading around 4.31% [5]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened lower and then rose slightly, trading around 7.316 [5]. Important Information - Tariff policy trends: Trump said on the 15th that the suspension of tariffs was for a transition period and flexibility, and would accelerate the issuance of all necessary licenses to NVIDIA. The EU and the US have made little progress in bridging trade differences, and most US tariffs on the EU will continue. Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for 6 months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico has strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the Texas border in the US have stalled [6]. - Fed watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 27.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 60.1%. The market bets that the Fed will cut rates once each in June, July, September, and December this year [6]. Logical Analysis - The market's risk sentiment changed from recovery to pessimism due to the situation of trade negotiations, which led to gold hitting a new high. Gold is expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall in the short - to - medium term, and silver may be supported by gold [8]. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [8]. - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [9]. - For options, use the collar call option strategy [10]. Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals prices, the relationship between real yields and precious metals prices, the relationship between domestic and foreign futures prices, the relationship between futures and spot prices, the gold - to - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [15][16][17]