宏观动态点评：一季度GDP超预期的背后

Economic Growth - Q1 GDP growth recorded at 5.4%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus of 5.0%[2] - Nominal GDP growth at 4.6%, consistent with Q4 of the previous year[2] - Trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to nominal GDP growth, up from 1.9 percentage points in Q4[2] Trade and External Factors - "Grab export" effect supported export growth, while import growth slowed down[2] - Anticipated impact of U.S. tariffs may reduce U.S. GDP growth by 1.5-2 percentage points, increasing recession probability to around 50%[4] - Need for stronger domestic demand policies to counteract potential external demand slowdown[4] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth rebounded to 5.9% in March, up from 4% in January-February[11] - Q1 retail sales growth recorded at 4.6%, an increase from 3.7% in December[11] - "Old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, particularly in home appliances and furniture[12] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth in March rose to 7.7%, up from 5.9% in January-February[9] - Q1 industrial value-added growth recorded at 6.5%, higher than 6.2% in December[9] - Strong performance in sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and electrical machinery, with some industries maintaining double-digit growth[9] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth in Q1 at 4.2%, faster than 3.2% for the entire previous year[13] - Infrastructure investment surged to 11.5% growth in Q1, driven by early issuance of special bonds[14] - Real estate investment decline slightly widened, with a 10% drop in March compared to 9.8% in January-February[15]