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进口如期放缓,火电降幅收窄,3重倒挂助煤价以时间换空间
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-17 01:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal production in March 2025 increased by 9.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from last year's production cuts in Shanxi [1][12] - Coal imports in March 2025 decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, with expectations of a slight decline in thermal coal imports for the year [2][15] - The decline in thermal power generation narrowed to 2.3% year-on-year in March 2025, indicating a slight recovery in overall power generation [3][18] - The crude steel production in March 2025 rose by 4.6% year-on-year, reflecting a stable demand in the steel market [4][30] Summary by Sections Production - In March 2025, the industrial raw coal output reached 440 million tons, marking a 9.6% increase year-on-year, with a daily average production of 14.21 million tons [1][12][13] Imports - March 2025 coal imports totaled 3.8732 million tons, down 6.4% from the previous year, with a total of 11.4846 million tons imported in the first quarter, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [2][15][16] Demand - The total industrial power generation in March 2025 was 778 billion kWh, showing a 1.8% increase year-on-year, while thermal power generation saw a decline of 2.3% [3][18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and China Qinfa, highlighting their potential for recovery and performance [5][32]