KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-17 02:01Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recovery of consumer demand is ongoing, supported by the expansion of the "old-for-new" policy and the restoration of consumer confidence. The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from upcoming domestic demand expansion policies [4][6] - The report highlights that the liquor industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with a high probability of stable upward movement, making it a suitable time for medium to long-term investment [4] - In the snack segment, companies with channel reforms and overseas market expansion are favored, with recommendations for Ganyuan Food. The beer industry is also expected to improve with the recovery of dining, recommending Qingdao Beer. Additionally, the dairy industry is highlighted for its potential due to fertility policy catalysts and the expected balance in raw milk prices, recommending leading company Yili [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The social retail sales data for March 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February [5][9] - The food and oil consumption growth rate remains stable, with significant increases in March for food and beverage categories, indicating a recovery in dining and nightlife consumption [5][6] Quarterly Observations - In Q1 2025, social retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with improvements in dining revenue, reflecting ongoing consumer demand recovery [6][7] - The food and oil category maintained a high growth rate, while beverage and tobacco categories showed month-on-month improvements, driven by improved consumer confidence [6][7] Industry Analysis - Major liquor companies are adjusting their targets and managing channel pressures, leading to a stable transition in the industry. The performance of leading liquor companies is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the base effect diminishes [7] - The snack segment is anticipated to accelerate in Q2, supported by channel reforms and category expansion, maintaining a favorable industry outlook [7]