宏源期货铅锌日评：宽幅整理-20250417

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The lead price fluctuated and declined due to macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is loose and demand is in the off - season, but the shortage of waste battery supply creates a cost - demand tug - of war. Short - term lead prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1]. - The zinc price retraced again under macro - sentiment. Short - term macro sentiment has high uncertainty, and zinc prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation. In the medium - to - long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 1.01% [1]. - The Shanghai lead basis was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 145 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 19.94 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.97 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 lead premium was - 75.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.30 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 19,726 lots, an increase of 14.24%; the open interest was 30,993 lots, a decrease of 3.38% [1]. Inventory - The LME lead inventory was 283,125 tons, with no change; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 57,977 tons, a decrease of 0.69% [1]. Fundamental News - Some lead - acid battery manufacturers in South China plan to stop production for the Labor Day holiday, with some in Guangdong planning at least 7 days off [1]. - High prices of antimony and tin have increased the cost of lead alloy smelters, and some have cut production by 30% [1]. - The supply of waste lead - acid batteries is tight, and a smelter in the main recycled lead production area has raised the purchase price twice this week but only received two trucks of goods [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.75% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 1.81% [1]. - The Shanghai zinc basis was 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton; the Shanghai zinc premium decreased in different regions, and the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 12.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.88 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 zinc premium was 0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.21 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 203,299 lots, an increase of 28.74%; the open interest was 126,631 lots, an increase of 11.49% [1]. Inventory - The LME zinc inventory was 190,550 tons, with no change; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 10,158 tons, an increase of 32.65% [1]. Fundamental News - An important die - casting zinc alloy factory in Central China has good orders, low finished - product inventory, and low raw - material inventory [1]. - Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots and 18,000 tons of zinc concentrate metal in 2025 [1]. - On April 15, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 23.38 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 910 lots to 214,783 lots [1].