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软商品日报:需求忧虑压制价格,棉花短期观望为主-20250417
Xin Da Qi Huo·2025-04-17 02:14

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major sugar-producing regions (except Yunnan) have completed the sugar-cane crushing, and a recovery in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but sugar output is uncertain due to weather factors. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of sugarcane and sugar beet in China, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Cotton consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons, and imports have also dropped by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, higher temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally favorable for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - Foreign Futures Quotes: On April 15 - 16, 2025, the price of US sugar futures rose from $17.43 to $17.73, a 1.72% increase; the price of US cotton futures rose from $66.13 to $66.3, a 0.26% increase [3] - Spot Prices: From April 15 - 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,130 yuan, a 0.49% decrease; in Kunming, it dropped from 6,010 yuan to 5,990 yuan, a 0.33% decrease. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a 0.31% decrease, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,200 yuan [3] - Spreads: There were various changes in sugar and cotton spreads from April 15 - 16, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased by 0.81%, SR05 - 09 increased by 9.15%, and CF01 - 05 increased by 7.58% [3] Import and Profit - Import Price: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.4 from April 15 - 16, 2025 [3] - Profit Margin: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,332 from April 15 - 16, 2025 [3] Options and Volatility - Options: For options such as SR509C5900, SR509P5900, CF509C12800, and CF509P12800, their implied volatilities and corresponding futures historical volatilities are provided. For example, SR509C5900 has an implied volatility of 0.1072, and the historical volatility of its underlying SR509 is 10.04 [3] Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse Receipts: From April 15 - 16, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27,410, while the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 9,479 to 9,715, a 2.49% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a well - regulated and high - reputation large - scale futures company in China. It holds various memberships in major domestic futures exchanges [9]