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Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton prices are under pressure to decline due to factors such as domestic over - capacity in the industrial chain, limited consumption growth, tariff policy adjustments, potential increases in cotton production in Xinjiang and Brazil, and the impact of Sino - US trade frictions [1]. - PTA prices are under pressure to decline mainly because of poor terminal weaving orders, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [3]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and decline due to low international crude oil prices, the impact of tariff policies on imports, and weak market sentiment [4]. - Short - fiber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak raw material prices and declining terminal textile demand [5]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, affected by factors such as short - term tight trade flow in the international sugar market, Brazilian production and weather conditions, and domestic import data and sales progress [7]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly as apple出库 is good and inventory is low, but macro risks need to be monitored [7]. Summary by Variety Cotton - Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. About 60% of the sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning factories has been released, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders [1]. - The external market is relatively weak, with the CFTC fund holding a net short position and the industry holding a net long position [1]. - In the second quarter, the situation is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, cotton production in Xinjiang may increase by 10%, and the new - year cotton output may reach 720 - 750 million tons. Brazilian cotton production is also increasing, which is bearish for cotton prices [1]. - On April 16, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,252 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [11]. PTA - As of April 16, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,270 yuan/ton. The terminal weaving situation is weak, and the downstream polyester demand is weak. The spot basis has strengthened slightly, and the market transaction is mediocre [10]. - The PTA capacity utilization rate remained at 76.41%, and the polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 91.31%, down 0.12% from the previous day. The PTA de - stocking continued [3]. - The decline is mainly due to poor terminal weaving orders. As of the beginning of this week, the comprehensive starting rate of domestic major weaving production bases was 56.57%, down 2.34% from last week [3]. Ethylene Glycol - International crude oil prices are low, and cost support is poor. The tariff policy affects imports, and the number of arrivals is expected to decrease. Although short - term polyester start - up is okay, market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to decline [4]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, up 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, up 0.48% from last week [16]. Short - fiber - Raw material prices are weak, and terminal textile demand is expected to decline. The short - fiber market is difficult to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - As of the 10th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate average was 82.84%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month [14]. Sugar - In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but with the start of the Brazilian sugar - making season and the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the ICE sugar price is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. - Domestically, imports have decreased year - on - year, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the later stage, as consumption increases, the price may be boosted [7]. - In April , Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks were 632,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.37%. From January to March 2025, Ukraine's sugar imports were 230 tons, 37% of the same period in 2024, and exports were 152,620 tons, 72% of the same period in 2024 [15]. Apple - The overall apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. However, macro risks need to be monitored [7]. - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 3.9863 million tons, a decrease of 389,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking was accelerating year - on - year [17]. Macroeconomic Information - In the first quarter, the GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% [11]. - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.094 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [11]. - The US has increased tariffs on China, and China has stated its position on the tariff issue [11].
长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250417
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-17 02:14