安粮期货生猪日报-20250417

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean oil 2509 contract may be consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be range - bound due to multiple factors [2] - The short - term corn futures price will range - bound, with a range - trading approach [3] - For copper, maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4] - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be weakly volatile, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [5][6] - For steel, consider a low - level long - buying approach as macro negatives are digested [7] - Coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited space [8] - The short - term trend of iron ore 2505 is mainly oscillatory [9] - For WTI crude oil, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/barrel for INE crude oil [10] - For rubber, pay attention to the downstream start - up situation, with support near 14000 yuan/ton [11] - The PVC futures price may be in low - level oscillation [12] - The soda ash futures may have a short - term weak - oscillatory trend [13] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot Information: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao Jiji is 8000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market Analysis: It is in the US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. South American new crops are likely to have a good harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may be neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1] Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3720 yuan/ton, 3440 yuan/ton, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Market Analysis: Sino - US tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. US soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply is tight, and downstream demand has a slight boost [2] Corn - Spot Information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2090 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2300 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3] - Market Analysis: US tariff increases raise import costs, and domestic supply pressure eases. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but there are still some suppressing factors [3] Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 75720 - 76120 yuan, down 275 yuan [4] - Market Analysis: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of resonance between reality and expectation [4] Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are 70750 yuan/ton and 69350 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1400 yuan/ton [5] - Market Analysis: The cost of lithium concentrate is expected to decline. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum. Inventory is accumulating [5][6] Steel - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.13%, and social and steel mill inventories are 590.95 million tons and 207.12 million tons respectively [7] - Market Analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a low - valuation. Cost is rising, and inventory is decreasing. The market is driven by macro policies and fundamentals [7] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1200 yuan/ton, and the price at Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton [8] - Market Analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [8] Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Platts index of iron ore is 99.95, and the prices of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder and Australian powder ore are provided [9] - Market Analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. US tariff policies suppress the upward space [9] Crude Oil - Spot Information: There is no specific spot price information provided, but the impact of tariff policies on the market is mentioned [10] - Market Analysis: The impact of "equivalent tariffs" is weakening. OPEC is increasing production, but demand may be affected by trade wars [10] Rubber - Spot Information: There is no specific spot price information provided, but the impact of US tariffs on the rubber market is mentioned [11] - Market Analysis: The rubber market is affected by tariffs. The supply is abundant, and demand may be suppressed [11] PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream prices of East China 5 - type PVC and ethylene - based PVC are 4820 yuan/ton and 5050 yuan/ton respectively [12] - Market Analysis: Supply is decreasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The futures price may be in low - level oscillation [12] Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1447.81 yuan/ton [13] - Market Analysis: Supply is at a high level, inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is average. The futures price may be weakly oscillatory [13]