Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver short positions should be appropriately reduced or the gold - silver ratio should be long. The base metals market shows different trends, with copper expected to be volatile and strong, aluminum to be volatile in the short - term and potentially stabilize, and alumina to maintain a volatile run. [2] - In the agricultural products market, domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and strong, palm oil is temporarily weak, domestic sugar is easy to rise in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term, cotton can stop profit on short positions or wait and see, and eggs and logs have different price trends and trading strategies. [3][4] - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE, PVC, PTA, rubber, glass, PP, MEG, styrene, soda ash, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand situations and trading strategies, mainly including short - term volatility, long - term supply - demand changes, and attention to factors such as tariffs and device maintenance. [5][6][7] - In the shipping market, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic under the trade war. The Southeast Asian routes will have a supply - demand mismatch in the short - term, and the European routes will show a pessimistic outlook. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. [2] - News: Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see approach, warning of the dilemma between inflation and the economy and denying a bailout. There were disputes over tariff policies, and economic data such as China's Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, Canada maintaining its interest rate at 2.75%, and a 1.4% increase in US March retail sales were released. [2] - Inventory Data: Indian silver imports in February decreased to about 250 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 9 tons to 961 tons, and SGE silver inventory decreased by 23 tons to 1745 tons last week. London's inventory in March decreased by 335 tons to 22124 tons. [2] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold and appropriately reduce short positions in silver or long the gold - silver ratio. [2] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices fluctuated yesterday. [2] - Fundamentals: Affected by the Sino - US trade war, copper prices weakened during the day session. At night, the decline in US stocks and the US dollar supported metal prices, and the strengthening of precious metals also supported copper prices. The spot premium of flat - copper in East and South China was 80 yuan and 60 yuan respectively. [2] - Trading Strategy: Treat it with a volatile and strong mindset. [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 0.64% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 19545 yuan/ton. [2] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. [2] - Trading Strategy: The uncertainty of US tariff policies is the main driver of aluminum price fluctuations. Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term but may stabilize if tariff policies ease. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina 2505 contract increased by 1.04% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2815 yuan/ton. [2] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, alumina maintenance, production cuts, and active production reduction were concentrated, with a significant decline in operating capacity. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. [2] - Trading Strategy: The uncertainty of ore supply has increased, and the spot price has stopped falling. Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile run in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose slightly overnight. [3] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, South America has a bumper harvest in the near - term, and the US may reduce soybean planting area in the long - term. On the demand side, Brazil dominates in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak. [3] - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, showing a backwardation pattern. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean planting area changes in the medium - term. [3] Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. [3] - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress is over 90%, much faster than in previous years. The expected decrease in substitute imports and the increase in demand have improved the supply - demand situation. The reduction in remaining grain and the addition of tariffs are beneficial to domestic corn consumption. [3] - Trading Strategy: With the reduction of remaining grain, the futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [3] Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short - term, trading on the expectation of increased production. [3] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there is seasonal production increase in the producing areas, with a 17% month - on - month increase in March production. On the demand side, exports from the producing areas improved month - on - month, with a 17% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 15. [3] - Trading Strategy: Palm oil is temporarily weak, and there are differences among varieties. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the medium - term. [3] Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5913 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. [3] - Fundamentals: International raw sugar prices have broken through the support level, while domestic sugar is easy to rise. The import of processed sugar is expected to increase after the third quarter. There are differences in the market's expectations for the new domestic sugar production. [3] - Trading Strategy: Short the 09 contract unilaterally. [3] Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton prices rose overnight, and Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to fluctuate. [3] - Fundamentals: The US cotton sowing progress is slow, and domestic downstream procurement has slowed down. The cotton textile PMI in March increased significantly, but orders are expected to decline. [3] - Trading Strategy: Stop profit on short positions or wait and see. [3] Logs - Market Performance: The log 07 contract closed at 825.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.36%. [3] - Fundamentals: The ban on US log imports has been reflected in the market. The current inventory out - flow has increased, but the arrival volume is still high. Housing construction demand has increased slightly, supporting the price bottom. [3] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. [3] Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2505 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. [4] - Fundamentals: The new production capacity is limited in the later period, and the supply will gradually decline as old chickens are continuously culled. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, demand will improve, and inventory is at a low level. [4] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Pigs - Market Performance: The pig 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell. [4] - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume in April is expected to increase by 3.67%. The narrowing of the standard - fat price difference reduces the willingness to hold pigs for fattening. Secondary fattening will support the pig price, but overall, the pig price may decline resistantly. [4] - Trading Strategy: Secondary fattening is cooling down, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak. [4] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract fell slightly yesterday. [5] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices are being put into operation, and spring maintenance is ending, increasing supply. The import window is closed, and imports are expected to decrease. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural films is ending, and exports of plastic products are expected to decline. [5] - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile and weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the long - term, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies. [5] PVC - Market Performance: The PVC V09 contract closed at 5041, down 0.38%. [5] - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is stable. Spring maintenance is coming, and the supply is expected to decrease. The inventory has declined from a high level. [5] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to hedge after the price recovers to a high premium. [5] PTA - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price is 738 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, PX and PTA supply has decreased in April, and polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the long - short spread opportunity if there is a short - term rush to export. [6] Rubber - Market Performance: The RU2509 contract fell 1.98%, closing at 14635 yuan/ton. [6] - Fundamentals: Raw material output is limited, and the purchase price is relatively firm. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. [6] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see or trade in the range, and pay attention to the support level at 14000 yuan/ton. [6] Glass - Market Performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1179, down 0.4%. [6] - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is stable. The price of glass fuel has increased due to US tariffs. There are both positive policy expectations and weak actual demand. [6] - Trading Strategy: It is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range. [6] PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract fell slightly yesterday. [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, short - term maintenance is ending, and new devices are starting up. The export window is open, and pay attention to the impact of tariffs on PDH devices. On the demand side, downstream production plans vary, and pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [6] - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile. Pay attention to the impact on PDH device operation and new device commissioning. [6] MEG - Market Performance: The MEG East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, domestic and overseas device maintenance will reduce supply, and the inventory has decreased. Polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term. [7] Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, pure benzene inventory is high, and styrene inventory is normal and expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, downstream profits are improving, but exports are affected by tariffs. Pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [7] - Trading Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate with the cost (pure benzene) and long the month - spread. [7] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract closed flat at 1359. [7] - Fundamentals: The operating rate is 90%, and the inventory is high and stable. Downstream photovoltaic glass is being put into production. The supply - demand is healthy, but there is no obvious driving force. [7] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. [7] Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The caustic soda sh09 contract closed flat. [7] - Fundamentals: The operating rate has slightly declined, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The price is pressured by the decline in the alumina industry chain. [7] - Trading Strategy: It is expected to continue to decline, and pay attention to the support level at 2200. [7] Shipping European Container Shipping - Market Performance: The main contract fell 6.21% yesterday. [8] - Fundamentals: The US exemption of high tariffs on semiconductor imports will slightly increase US - bound trade volume, but overall Sino - US trade volume will still be much lower than before the trade war. Exports are turning to re - export and domestic sales. The supply side is affected by tariff policies, and the demand side shows different trends in different regions. [8] - Trading Strategy: The overall shipping rate outlook is pessimistic under the trade war. Short the 10 - month contract on rallies. [8]
商品期货早班车-20250417
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-04-17 02:21