东吴证券晨会纪要-20250417

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the Chinese technology industry is injecting stability into global assets, transitioning from "point breakthroughs" to "system evolution" in its innovation system, which is crucial for transforming into an innovation-driven economy [1][18] - The capital market is expected to continuously provide stable liquidity support for the technology industry, with "KOT estimates" likely to inject further stability into the revaluation of China's economic transformation [1][19] Fixed Income - The report analyzes the investment value of technology bonds, noting that despite increased trading sentiment, the market's growth rate is more significant, indicating ample trading space for technology bonds [3] - Technology bonds generally have a credit spread slightly higher than ordinary credit bonds of the same rating, with a notable advantage in the 3-5 year maturity range, suggesting a larger capital gain potential compared to ordinary credit bonds [3] - The valuation yield of technology bonds predominantly falls within the 2%-2.5% range, with longer maturities showing a significant upward trend, making them attractive for investors seeking stable returns [3] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for revaluation in various industries, particularly in high-tech, consumer, and emerging service sectors, suggesting that investors should explore valuation discrepancies in technology bonds from an industry perspective [5] - The computer industry is highlighted as a significant area for growth, driven by policy support and the emergence of a trillion-dollar market, indicating a multi-dimensional value opportunity [6] Environmental Industry - The report discusses the renewable energy subsidy projects released by the State Grid, focusing on the importance of stable operations and self-control in the environmental sector [7] - It suggests that defensive assets driven by domestic demand, such as solid waste and water services, are expected to see significant cash flow improvements and dividend increases [7] Company-Specific Analysis - The report provides a detailed analysis of Zhongwei Co., predicting a net profit of 18.6 billion yuan for 2025, with a target price of 44 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - For Qianhe Flavor Industry, the report adjusts revenue expectations downward due to strategic adjustments but anticipates profit growth driven by cost advantages [9] - China XD Electric is projected to achieve a net profit of 17.0 billion yuan by 2025, with a "buy" rating maintained due to strong performance in its transformer and switch businesses [11]