关税加征影响出口，聚烯烃偏弱整理

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The imposition of tariffs by the US affects exports, and polyolefins are mainly in a weak consolidation state. Currently, the supply of PE remains at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable in the short term, with supply still under pressure. The capacity utilization rate of PP has increased slightly, and it is expected that the number of newly added maintenance enterprises will increase, resulting in a shrinking supply trend. The commissioning of the new Shandong Xinshengdai plant may be postponed. The propane price fluctuates significantly following the international crude oil price, and the production profit of PDH - made PP remains near the break - even point, with a fair cost - side support. The increase in the operating rate of downstream factories is limited, and the operating rate of agricultural films is expected to decline, gradually transitioning to the off - season. Affected by the tariff policy, the external demand for PP is expected to weaken. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links has been slightly reduced. [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics in the single - side trading, and there is no recommendation for inter - period trading. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7131 yuan/ton (-60), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7098 yuan/ton (-26). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (-20), the spot price of LL in East China is 7480 yuan/ton (-20), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7320 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is 319 yuan/ton (+40), the basis of LL in East China is 349 yuan/ton (+40), and the basis of PP in East China is 222 yuan/ton (+26). [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PE is 83.2% (+0.8%), and the operating rate of PP is 79.0% (+2.7%). The production profit of PE from oil - based production is 645.0 yuan/ton (+1.3), the production profit of PP from oil - based production is 225.0 yuan/ton (+1.3), and the production profit of PDH - made PP is - 82.7 yuan/ton (-54.3). [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - There is no specific data provided in the given text for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - The import profit of LL is - 226.4 yuan/ton (-21.5), the import profit of PP is - 318.4 yuan/ton (-1.2), and the export profit of PP is 67.6 US dollars/ton (+0.2). [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural films is 37.5% (-3.0%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging films is 48.1% (+0.3%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 46.7% (-0.9%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP films is 61.8% (+0.0%). [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The text mentions that the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links has been slightly reduced, but no specific inventory data is provided. [2]