Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Tariff policy disturbances persist, and market sentiment changes dominate price movements. Fundamentally, raw material demand is acceptable, and periodic restocking stimulates the price support of coking coal and coke in the spot market. However, the increase in raw material supply is also significant, and the overall supply - demand situation remains loose. Prices are expected to remain in a weak and volatile state [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content - Market Performance: Tariff policy disturbances persist. The black metal sector showed overall weak and volatile performance yesterday, with coking coal having the largest decline, and the main contract gradually shifting to the 09 contract. In the spot market, the first round of coke price increase was implemented, and the price of Mongolian coal slightly declined [2]. - Production Data: In March, China's raw coal production was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The cumulative production in the first quarter was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In March, China's coke production was 41.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. The cumulative production in the first quarter was 123.19 million tons, an increase of 3.428 million tons or 2.86% year - on - year. In March, China's pig iron production was 75.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative pig iron production in the first quarter was 216.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In March, crude steel production was 92.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The cumulative crude steel production in the first quarter was 259.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [2]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The increase in raw material supply is higher than that of downstream products, indicating a loose supply - demand relationship for coking coal and coke. Currently, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills has increased to 2.4022 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 154,700 tons. Hot metal production is close to the relatively high level of the same period in previous years. There is positive demand feedback in the short - term industrial chain, and steel mills replenish raw materials. The inventory of upstream coking coal and coke gradually transfers to the downstream, stimulating strong price - support sentiment for raw materials. However, the downstream procurement pace has slowed down month - on - month, and the market feedback suggests that the restocking of steel mills and coking plants is almost over, and the inventory level of coking coal and coke is still higher than the same period [2].
华宝期货晨报煤焦-20250417
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-04-17 02:47