20250417申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250417

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel prices in the short - term are expected to show different trends. Copper and zinc may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, aluminum may have short - term oscillatory movements, and nickel may also have short - term oscillations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose over 1%. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power investment driven by the grid growing strongly, home appliance production continuing to increase, and new energy vehicle copper demand expected to be consolidated. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, inventory, and basis need attention [1]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices fell. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales, infrastructure, and home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data has narrowed. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, and smelting output should be monitored [1]. Aluminum - Night - session Shanghai aluminum prices rose 0.33%. US tariff policies are inconsistent, and the non - ferrous sector is under pressure. Although the market has a bottom - fishing sentiment due to low alumina prices and low profits, supply is still sufficient, limiting price increases. Downstream demand is warming up in April. Considering tariff uncertainties, Shanghai aluminum may oscillate in the short term [1]. Nickel - Night - session Shanghai nickel prices rose 0.72%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and market sentiment has improved. The PNBP policy in Indonesia may lead to higher nickel ore prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and nickel salt prices may rise. Stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term [1]. 4. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 75,350 | 35 | 9,189 | - 32.22 | 216,250 | 3,775 | | Aluminum | 19,615 | 20 | 2,389 | - 37.00 | 436,975 | - 2,350 | | Zinc | 22,180 | 165 | 2,578 | - 31.57 | 190,550 | 78,525 | | Nickel | 124,140 | - 1,510 | 15,595 | - 202.64 | 202,590 | - 228 | | Lead | 16,655 | - 5 | 1,904 | - 16.24 | 283,125 | 17,575 | | Tin | 255,150 | 2,660 | 30,960 | - 264.00 | 2,845 | 0 | [2]