长江期货市场交易指引-20250417

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move sideways, while treasury bonds are expected to rise sideways in the short term [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar - temporarily wait and see; Iron ore - move weakly sideways; Coking coal and coke - move sideways [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper - trade within a range; Aluminum - wait and see; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - operate within a range; Gold - build positions on dips after sufficient price corrections; Silver - operate within a range [1][11][13] - Energy and chemicals: PVC - move sideways; Soda ash - hold short positions in call options; Caustic soda - move sideways; Rubber - move sideways; Urea - operate within a range; Methanol - operate within a range; Plastic - move sideways [1][19][25] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate violently; Apples - move strongly sideways; PTA - move weakly sideways [1][30][31] - Agricultural and livestock products: Hogs - move weakly sideways; Eggs - near - term contracts may see increased fluctuations, and short on rallies for far - term contracts; Corn - buy on dips; Soybean meal - weak in the near term and strong in the long term; Oils and fats - move strongly sideways [1][34][37] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Tariff policies have a significant impact on various industries, causing market volatility and uncertainty. Economic data affects market expectations for policies, and supply - demand relationships determine the price trends of specific products [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Index futures are expected to move sideways due to factors such as Powell's stance, tariff games, and lack of upward momentum in the stock market [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to rise sideways in the short term as the focus returns to the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market is in a favorable period with limited short - term negative factors [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The short - term market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. It is advisable to wait and see for now [7] - Iron ore: The price is expected to move weakly sideways. The supply is expected to increase while the demand may decline, but considering factors such as high hot metal production and potential macro - policy benefits, it may rebound slightly or maintain a sideways trend in the near term [7] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal market is in a supply - demand game situation, and the coke market may continue to fluctuate under the support of rigid demand, but risks such as a decline in hot metal production need to be watched out for [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: After a sharp decline, it rebounds and is expected to move within a range. The long - term demand logic remains, but the medium - and long - term impact of tariffs may lower the market demand and the price center [11] - Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of the ore end is improving, the operating capacity of alumina is decreasing, and the demand of the downstream processing industry is weakening. The short - term macro uncertainty is high [13] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The macro environment is not favorable, but the cost support at the ore end exists. The refined nickel and nickel iron are in an oversupply situation, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [14][15] - Tin: It is recommended to operate within a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, but Congo's tin mine is expected to resume production, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support the demand [16] - Gold and silver: It is recommended to build positions on dips after sufficient price corrections. The macro uncertainty is high, and factors such as central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, but the short - term macro pessimism has eased, and the valuation is low, with the possibility of a weak rebound [19] - Caustic soda: It is expected to move sideways. The current situation is a low - level sideways movement, with limited upside and downside space. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory changes and alumina production [21] - Rubber: It is expected to move sideways. The market is dominated by weak demand and supply increase pressure. The raw material at the domestic opening - cut stage has certain support, and the inventory shows a small - scale destocking trend [22] - Urea: It is recommended to operate within a range. The supply is stable, the demand for compound fertilizers is still at a high level, and the summer fertilizer demand is expected to support the price in the short term [25] - Methanol: It is recommended to operate within a range. The domestic production rate is high, the demand in some regions may decline slightly, and the price is supported by low inventory and suppressed by demand reduction [26] - Plastic: It is expected to move sideways at a low level. The supply pressure is large, the downstream demand is weak, but tariffs may provide some support to the market price [27] - Soda ash: It is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and although the demand has improved, the price is still under pressure [29] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy [30] - Apples: The price is expected to move strongly sideways as the inventory is low and the sales are good, but macro risks need to be watched out for [31] - PTA: It is expected to move weakly sideways. Although the supply - demand relationship is good and inventory is decreasing, the price is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in raw material costs and poor export orders [31][32] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Hogs: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the short term, it is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and in the long term, the supply pressure is large, especially in the second quarter [34] - Eggs: Near - term contracts may see increased fluctuations, and it is recommended to short on rallies for far - term contracts. The short - term price is supported by replenishment demand, but the long - term supply is expected to increase [35] - Corn: It is recommended to buy on dips. The short - term spot price is supported, and the long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening, but the upward space may be limited by substitutes [37] - Soybean meal: It is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term supply is expected to increase, but the long - term price is expected to rise due to factors such as the impact of tariffs on imports and potential supply reduction [37][38] - Oils and fats: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up in the short term. The short - term market may rebound due to positive factors, but the long - term supply increase may lead to a price decline, followed by a possible strong sideways movement in the third quarter [43]