1-3 月经济数据点评：内需接棒外需，政策仍待加码

Economic Growth - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing both the full year of 2024 and the same period in 2024[1] - Industrial added value in March increased by 7.7% year-on-year, driven by policies promoting exports and new technologies[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in March rose by 5.9%, marking the highest monthly growth since 2024[1] Consumption - From January to March, total retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year, an improvement of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year[6] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted sales in categories such as communication equipment (26.9%), cultural office supplies (21.7%), and home appliances (19.3%) in March[11] - The CPI decline narrowed to -0.1% in March, contributing positively to nominal retail sales[17] Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.1% in Q1, with equipment investment surging by 19%[25] - The automotive sector saw a growth rate of 24.5%, indicating a strong recovery and expansion potential[25] - High-tech manufacturing sectors, including railway and aerospace, experienced significant growth, with added value increasing by 10.9%[54] Infrastructure - Narrowly defined infrastructure investment grew by 5.8% in Q1, supported by early issuance of government bonds[32] - The total government bond financing reached 3.8 trillion yuan in Q1, significantly higher than the previous year's 1.3 trillion yuan[34] Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in March, down from 5.4% in February, indicating a seasonal recovery[67] - The unemployment rate for local residents improved to 5.3%, reflecting a stabilization in the job market[67] Real Estate - Real estate investment declined by 9.9% year-on-year in Q1, with a notable drop in office building investments to -17%[40] - New home prices in first-tier cities showed slight increases, while declines in second and third-tier cities continued to narrow[41]