国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20250417

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is testing its previous high, and silver is stabilizing and rebounding [2][4]. - For copper, inventory increase restricts price recovery [2][9]. - Aluminum shows a slightly bullish and oscillating trend, while alumina prices are under pressure [2][12]. - Zinc is under short - term pressure [2][15]. - Lead is trading in a range [2][18]. - Nickel's fundamentals provide short - term support, and nickel prices are firm; for stainless steel, cost may provide bottom support, but negative feedback expectations exert pressure [2][20]. - Tin is slightly recovering [2][24]. - The industrial silicon futures price is testing cost support, and for polysilicon, delivery resources may be limited, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [2][28][29]. - Lithium carbonate shows a strengthening monthly spread and continues its oscillating trend [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Fundamentals: Gold and silver prices showed significant fluctuations. For example, Comex gold 2504 had a 3.66% daily increase, and silver T + D had a 1.12% daily increase. Trading volumes and open interests also changed, with Comex gold 2504's trading volume increasing by 132,270 and Comex silver 2504's trading volume increasing by 24,010 [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 0 [7]. 3.2 Copper - Fundamentals: Copper prices showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai copper main contract down 0.80% during the day and up 1.10% at night. Inventory increased, with Shanghai copper inventory rising by 9,135 tons and LME copper inventory rising by 3,775 tons [9]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [11]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - Fundamentals: Aluminum prices showed an oscillating and slightly bullish trend, while alumina prices were under pressure. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract's closing price was 19,545 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai alumina main contract's closing price was 2,815 yuan/ton. Inventory and other indicators also changed [12]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Zinc - Fundamentals: Zinc prices were under short - term pressure. The Shanghai zinc main contract's closing price decreased by 1.81%. Inventory increased significantly, with LME zinc inventory rising by 78,525 tons [15]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [16]. 3.5 Lead - Fundamentals: Lead prices were trading in a range. The Shanghai lead main contract's closing price decreased by 1.01%. Inventory changes were mixed, with Shanghai lead futures inventory decreasing by 401 tons and LME lead inventory increasing by 17,575 tons [18]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Nickel prices were firm, and stainless steel prices were affected by cost and negative feedback expectations. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract's closing price was 124,140 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract's closing price was 12,820 yuan/ton [20]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [23]. 3.7 Tin - Fundamentals: Tin prices were slightly recovering. The Shanghai tin main contract's closing price decreased by 1.48% during the day and 0.47% at night. Inventory decreased, with Shanghai tin inventory decreasing by 74 tons [25]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [27]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The industrial silicon futures price is testing cost support, and polysilicon delivery resources may be limited. For example, the Si2505 contract's closing price was 9,020 yuan/ton, and the PS2506 contract's closing price was 40,265 yuan/ton [29]. - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is - 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [31]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: Lithium carbonate shows a strengthening monthly spread and continues its oscillating trend. For example, the 2505 contract's closing price was 70,420 yuan/ton, and the 2507 contract's closing price was 70,380 yuan/ton [34]. - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [37].