美方再度提高关税，但铜价则震荡走高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, copper prices are stabilizing after a significant decline. Although smelter profits are still relatively good due to by - products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals, the persistently low TC remains a concern. Macroscopically, under Trump's erratic tariff policies, the US dollar's credit is greatly impacted, and commodities with hedging functions like precious metals and copper may gradually be favored by the market [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On April 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 75,500 yuan/ton and closed at 75,260 yuan/ton, a - 0.93% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 75,450 yuan/ton and closed at 76,090 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the afternoon close [2] Spot Situation - On the day, the quotation for the SHFE copper 2505 contract started. Sellers gradually lowered the premium from 100 yuan/ton. Before 9:30 am, due to rising prices, some traders offered discounts to downstream buyers. Mainstream flat - copper was traded at a premium of 70 - 80 yuan/ton, and certain brands were traded at 60 - 70 yuan/ton. Later, as prices fell, sellers of low - price goods were less willing to sell. During the main trading period, mainstream copper transactions were stagnant, with rigid - demand purchases at a premium of 70 - 90 yuan/ton, BMK - type goods at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and non - registered goods at a discount of 30 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton [3] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: Fed Chairman Powell said the policy position is good and needs clearer data before considering adjustments. Cryptocurrencies are becoming mainstream, and relevant regulations are expected to be relaxed. Tariffs are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, and the impact may last a long time. Currently, inflation and unemployment are rising. Don't expect the Fed to intervene in a falling stock market. Trump's policies are constantly changing, and the tariffs are higher than the Fed's highest estimate. The US has raised tariffs on China to 245%, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that the US has weaponized tariffs irrationally and China ignores it [4] - Mine End: SolGold is implementing an early production strategy, prioritizing open - pit and sublevel caving mining opportunities at its Cascabel copper/gold project in Ecuador to accelerate cash flow before full - scale development of the flagship Alpala deposit. The strategy focuses on nearby satellite deposits, especially Tandayama, to reduce early - stage risks. A 5400 - meter drilling campaign will start in early May at Tandayama, with three drills to drill up to 15 holes, including 11 high - priority targets [4] - Smelting and Import: According to Mysteel, China's electrolytic copper production in Q1 2025 was 3.2288 million tons, an increase of 0.2922 million tons compared to Q1 2024. In Q2, smelter maintenance is expected to reduce production by 100,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons), but new capacity will contribute an increment of over 60,000 tons. Although the maintenance peak brings a reduction expectation, new capacity still supports overall output. In the Shanghai market this week, arrivals increased slightly, mainly non - registered imported copper, while domestic smelter shipments were still low. With the continuous improvement of the import parity, the volume of imported copper customs clearance is expected to gradually increase [5] - Consumption: The "List of Key Projects in Anhui Province in 2025" involves multiple copper - related projects, including copper - based new material projects, recycled copper projects, and high - precision copper strip projects, with a total planned production capacity of hundreds of thousands of tons [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 4650 tons to 216,250 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 9135 tons to 101,344 tons. On April 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 250,500 tons, a change of - 16,700 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - The report recommends a cautiously bullish stance on copper [7] Price and Base - Difference Data | Category | Item | April 17, 2025 | April 16, 2025 | April 10, 2025 | March 18, 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) | SMM: 1 Copper | 95 | 40 | 95 | 20 | | | Premium Copper | 105 | 50 | 105 | 40 | | | Flat - Copper | 80 | 25 | 80 | 5 | | | Wet - Process Copper | 25 | 0 | 30 | - 50 | | | Yangshan Premium | 103 | 104 | 105 | 83 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 45 | - 30 | - 34 | - 49 | | Inventory | LME | 216,250 | 212,475 | 211,925 | 233,750 | | | SHFE | 182,941 | | 225,736 | | | | COMEX | 109,241 | 108,655 | 97,208 | 84,766 | | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipt Ratio | 43.82% | 44.06% | 43.52% | 47.29% | | Warehouse Receipt Arbitrage | SHFE Warehouse Receipt CU2412 - CU2409 (Continuous Three - Month - Near - Month) | - 170 | 101,344 | 92,209 - 230 | 97,393 - 340 | | | CU2409 - CU2408 (Main - Near - Month) | 40 | | - 60 | - 130 | | | CU2409/AL2409 | 3.85 | 3.88 | 3.73 | 3.84 | | | CU2409/ZN2409 | 3.43 | 3.40 | 3.29 | 3.33 | | | Import Profit | - 87 | - 445 | 10 | - 819 | | | Shanghai - London Ratio (Main) | 8.19 | | 8.31 | 8.11 | 8.22 | [28][30]