每日投资策略-20250417

Macro Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, but the GDP deflator indicates significant deflationary pressure [2] - Economic activity data for March significantly surpassed market expectations, driven by the "old for new" policy, leading to a rebound in retail sales and strong industrial output [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a slight increase, benefiting from a recovery in infrastructure investment, while the real estate market showed signs of fatigue with declining sales growth in new and second-hand homes in early April [2] - Trade conflicts may challenge economic growth through reduced exports, suppressed domestic investment, and weakened consumer confidence, exacerbating deflationary pressures [2] Industry Insights - The technology sector is facing supply chain disruptions due to the U.S. government's export restrictions on Nvidia's H20 chips to China and other D5 countries, which could lead to fluctuations in the AI server supply chain [5] - Nvidia's inventory write-down of $5.5 billion corresponds to 1.1 million H20 chips and 138,000 AI servers, indicating a significant impact on the supply chain [5] - The Chinese CSPs are expected to accelerate the procurement of domestic computing power chips and servers in response to these restrictions, potentially leading to a rapid rise of the domestic supply chain [5] Company Analysis - Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 4.35 billion in Q1, a 12% year-on-year increase, and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 737 million, a 32% increase, aligning with Bloomberg consensus [5] - The strong profit growth outlook for Tongcheng Travel is primarily driven by domestic demand, relatively insulated from tariffs and geopolitical conflicts [5] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel remains at HKD 24, with a projected growth of 25% in core online travel operating profit and 18% in overall non-GAAP net profit from 2025 to 2027 [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 23, indicating a potential upside of 49% [6] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 28, representing a 50% upside [6] - Anta Sports (2020 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 119.08, showing a 36% upside potential [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 38.51, indicating a 28% upside [6] - BYD Electronics (285 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 47.10, reflecting a 48% upside [6]