2025年第一季度债券市场信用利差分析：行业利差全线收窄，长久期城投债信用分化加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In Q1 2025, the credit spreads of the bond market across all tenors and ratings generally narrowed, and the credit differentiation among credit bonds of all tenors decreased at the end of Q1. Industry credit spreads of industrial bonds also narrowed across the board, while the medium - credit - rated (AA - grade) spreads of the real estate industry continued to widen. The spreads of urban investment bonds at all levels generally narrowed, but the credit differentiation of long - term urban investment bonds intensified [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit Spread Overall Narrowed (1) Spreads of All Tenors and Ratings Generally Narrowed - 1 - year Tenor: In Q1 2025, the spreads of all credit ratings showed a volatile downward trend. Compared with the end of Q4 2024, the spreads of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - grades narrowed by 19.17BP, about 25BP, and 37.17BP respectively [5][6]. - 3 - year Tenor: The spreads of all ratings narrowed significantly compared with the previous quarter. AA +, AA, and AA - grades had relatively large narrowing amplitudes of 24.24BP, 25.24BP, and 29.74BP respectively, while the narrowing amplitude of the high - grade (AAA) was relatively small [10][11]. - 5 - year Tenor: The spreads of AA +, AA, and AA - grades narrowed slightly by 5.67BP, 9.17BP, and 5.17BP respectively compared with the previous quarter, while the spread of AAA - grade was basically the same as the previous quarter [18]. (2) The Spread Difference between Low - grade and High - grade Increased In Q1 2025, the spread difference of the 1 - year tenor decreased continuously, while the spread differences of the 3 - year and 5 - year tenors rebounded slightly in March after two consecutive months of decline. By the end of Q1, the spread differences of the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year tenors decreased by 18BP, 15BP, and 5.5BP respectively compared with the end of Q4 2024, indicating a decrease in credit differentiation [21]. 2. Industry Credit Spreads Narrowed across the Board, and the Spread of the Medium - Credit - Rated Real Estate Industry Continued to Widen - Overall Industry Situation: In Q1 2025, the credit spreads of all 23 selected Shenwan industries narrowed significantly compared with the previous quarter. The spreads of the pharmaceutical biology, automobile, coal mining, and comprehensive industries narrowed the most, while those of the public utilities, power, and food and beverage industries narrowed relatively less [25]. - Medium - Credit - Rated Real Estate Industry: The AA - grade spread of the real estate industry widened by 43.65BP compared with the previous quarter. Although the real estate investment and sales showed signs of stabilization and recovery, AA - grade real estate enterprises were mostly troubled private real - estate developers with relatively high credit risks [30]. 3. Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds at All Levels Generally Narrowed - 1 - year Tenor: Except for the AA - grade, the spreads of other levels of 1 - year urban investment bonds narrowed significantly compared with the previous quarter, with a narrowing amplitude of about 20BP. The government's debt - resolution policy helped to ease the credit risk of urban investment bonds [32]. - 3 - year Tenor: The spreads of all levels of 3 - year urban investment bonds showed a volatile narrowing trend. By the end of Q1, the spreads of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - grades decreased by 21.75BP, 25.15BP, 29.75BP, and 10.25BP respectively compared with the previous quarter [36]. - 5 - year Tenor: The spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend. The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA grades narrowed slightly, while the spread of the AA - grade widened significantly by 53.86BP, which may be related to the market's cautious attitude towards long - term urban investment bonds with weak qualifications [40][41]. - Credit Differentiation: The spread differences between the low - grade (AA -) and high - grade (AAA) of urban investment bonds at all tenors showed an overall upward trend in Q1 2025, indicating intensified credit differentiation of long - term urban investment bonds [45].