远东研究·信用研究专题 邮箱：wangna@fecr.com.cn 化债观察之城投新增融资透视 作者：王娜 摘 要 自 2023 年 7 月"一揽子化债方案"提出以来，地方政府化债相关政策密 集出台，形成了"35 号文+6"政策体系，即以"35 号文"为核心文件，后又陆 续出台 6 个配套的补充性文件。一方面，通过多种债务风险化解措施来化解存 量债务；另一方面，又通过限制政府投资项目及差异化限制城投融资等方式遏 制新增债务；同时，配套设置"退平台"、退出重点省份等措施来解除相关限 制。整体上现行政策对城投融资进行了较为完备的严监管限制。而落实到具体 发行审核层面，主要依托名单制管理，整体审核尺度亦较为严格。在此背景下， 各地政府积极依托资源整合与产业平台搭建，持续探索市场化融资新路径。 本文立足于当前严监管与化债并重的再融资环境，对城投新增融资情况进 行梳理，并对 2023 年 10 月以来首次发行债券的城投和类城投产业主体进行重 点观察： 城投新增融资的总体层面，呈现出"总量严控、结构分化"的显著特征。 高评级主体和优质区域明显占优，银行间与交易所市场在不同行政层级城投的 融资分布上存在一定差异。 新增首发 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The extremely low interest rate of the 25 Orient Fortune Sea PPN001 (Sci - tech Bond) is mainly due to the central - local cooperation risk - sharing mechanism. The report explores the risk - sharing mechanism of sci - tech bonds from the perspectives of risk - sharing tools and private enterprise bond issuance practices [2][6]. - The risk - sharing mechanism of sci - tech bonds, while continuing the toolbox of private enterprise bonds, has a fundamental shift in service objects, aiming to cultivate the long - term financing capabilities of hard - tech private enterprises and venture capital institutions. However, the current credit enhancement means and risk - sharing mechanisms are still imperfect [4]. - The evolution of China's private enterprise bond financing support tools shows a shift from policy - oriented to market - oriented operations, but the overall support for private enterprise bond financing has not been effective, with the net financing of private enterprise bonds being negative for a long time since 2018 [3][43][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Sharing Toolbox and Relevant Practices of Sci - tech Bonds - **Risk - sharing Modes**: There are two main risk - sharing modes: diversified sharing and mutual - cooperation sharing. The report focuses on the mutual - cooperation sharing mode, and risk - sharing tools mainly include guarantee credit enhancement, credit derivatives, central - local cooperation, and the establishment of risk - compensation funds [7]. - **Guarantee Credit Enhancement**: In the credit bond guarantee practice, the guaranteed subjects are mainly AA - rated state - owned enterprises, and the guarantee method is mainly joint - liability guarantee. China's financing guarantee system is government - led, but the actual guarantee coverage of market - oriented guarantee institutions for private enterprise bonds is low. Sci - tech bonds are tilted towards high - credit - grade state - owned enterprises, with an overall guarantee ratio of less than 5%, and the guarantee of private enterprise sci - tech bonds is even more difficult [8][13][14]. - **Transaction - type Credit Enhancement**: It is usually provided by credit enhancement companies. When the issuer defaults, the bondholder can transfer the bond to the credit enhancement company. Currently, the use of this method in the bond market is rare. As of July 15, 2025, only 3 outstanding credit bonds used this method, including 1 sci - tech bond [15]. - **Credit Derivatives**: The development of China's credit derivatives market is still in its early stage. There are 6 types of credit derivatives in total, including 4 in the inter - bank market and 2 in the exchange market. The development of credit derivatives has experienced several stages, and the issuance volume increased during the private enterprise and real - estate enterprise default tides. CRMW, as an example, shows characteristics such as commercial - bank - led creation, short - term creation, and low scale coverage in supporting sci - tech bonds. The supported subjects are mainly high - credit - grade private enterprises, and the industries are concentrated in basic chemicals, textile and apparel, and electronics [16][23]. - **Local Risk -缓释 Funds**: These are risk - compensation special funds arranged by local fiscal budgets. In the credit field, they mainly support small and medium - sized enterprises; in the bond field, they mainly serve to resolve urban investment debt risks. There is a lack of practical experience in supporting sci - tech bonds, although relevant policies encourage local governments to set up such funds [26][27][28]. - **Central - local Cooperation**: It is an innovative practice under the framework of the private enterprise bond financing support tool, with a double - layer credit - enhancement structure of "central + local". It has the advantages of risk dispersion and flexible and precise financing support. In supporting sci - tech bonds, in June 2025, 5 private equity investment institution sci - tech bonds were issued, mostly using the central - local cooperation mode, and the market recognition was high [29][35][36]. 3.2 Credit Risk - sharing Practices of Private Enterprise Bonds - **Evolution of Private Enterprise Bond Financing Support Tools**: It can be divided into three stages: the establishment stage (2018 - 2021), during which the private enterprise bond financing support tool was set up; the innovation stage (2022), when non - pure policy - oriented tools and the central - local cooperation new model were launched; and the stage of increasing support (2022 end - present), featuring a normalized central - local cooperation credit - enhancement mode [40][41][43]. - **Effect of Private Enterprise Bond Financing Support Tools**: Despite the continuous increase in support for private enterprise bond financing, due to successive default tides of private enterprises and real - estate enterprises, the support resources are mainly concentrated on high - credit - grade, medium - and large - sized private enterprises. The overall support effect is not significant, with the net financing of private enterprise bonds being negative for a long time since 2018 [43][46][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy will continue. Aggregate monetary policy tools will take turns to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The central bank will use tools such as medium - term lending facilities, outright reverse repurchases, and pledged supplementary loans to make up for medium - and long - term liquidity gaps. There is a possibility of restarting the buying and selling of national bonds to adjust liquidity under the premise of a stable bond market. A 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in the second half of the year is expected to be implemented. Structural monetary policy tools will be enriched to further support key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption, the capital market, and "two new" and "two important" sectors. A 20BP interest rate cut in the second half of the year is also expected to be implemented [2][3][29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q2 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Highlights - The description of the domestic economy is positive, with new challenges of "more trade barriers" and "low - running prices". The judgment of the external economic environment has changed from "weak growth momentum in the world economy" in Q1 to "weakening growth momentum in the world economy", and the description of the domestic economic environment has become more optimistic. However, concerns about "persistently low - running prices" are newly added [5] - Monetary policy continues to be "moderately loose" and pays more attention to "flexibility". The implementation of subsequent monetary policies will focus more on quality, and emphasize flexible control of the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [6] - Structural monetary policy supports key areas such as "two new" and "two important". It continues to support areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption, and the capital market, and adds support for "two new" and "two important" areas [6] - Exchange - rate pressure has eased. Three "resolutely" statements are deleted, and the tone of stabilizing the exchange rate has become more relaxed. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has relieved the short - term constraints on monetary policy [7] - The real estate market is mainly focused on "stability". The stance of "stabilizing the real estate market" continues, and if the market declines in the future, there is still room for policy intensification [7] 3.2 Economic and Financial Data Performance from January to May 2025 - Industrial added - value growth has slowed marginally, and service - sector production has been relatively stable. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value were 5.9%, 7.7%, 6.1%, and 5.8% respectively. The growth rates of high - tech industries remained high, and some industries' production was affected by exports [11] - Consumption growth has been remarkable, mainly driven by the expansion of the trade - in policy and online sales promotions. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods were 4%, 5.9%, 5.1%, and 6.4% respectively. However, the follow - up policy recovery and its sustainability in supporting consumption need to be monitored [12] - The growth rate of fixed investment has continued to decline. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment have remained resilient, while real estate investment has been a drag. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment completion were 3.5%, 2.8%, 1.1%, and 0.7% respectively [13] - Export growth has slowed marginally, and the "rush - to - export" effect has diminished. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export amounts were 3.6%, 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.8% respectively. Although the impact of tariffs on exports has weakened, the impact of weakening external demand still needs attention [14] - In terms of prices, both CPI and PPI have remained low, with unstable demand and narrowed corporate profit margins. From January to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of CPI were 0.5%, - 0.7%, - 0.1%, - 0.1%, and - 0.1% respectively, and those of PPI were - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.5%, - 2.7%, and - 3.3% respectively [17] - In terms of social financing, the increment of social financing and credit has slowed down in Q2, and government bonds have been the main support. Government bonds have been the main support for social financing, while credit has gradually declined [18] - In terms of credit, the new loans of residents have declined, while corporate short - term loans have increased and medium - and long - term loans have decreased. From January to May 2025, the new short - term and medium - and long - term loans of residents have decreased, while corporate short - term loans and bill financing have increased, and medium - and long - term loans have decreased [19] - In terms of government bonds, in the first half of 2025, the net financing of general national bonds was about 2.5 trillion yuan, and that of special national bonds was about 0.9 trillion yuan. The total issuance scale of local government bonds was about 5.5 trillion yuan, and the net financing was about 2.5 trillion yuan [19] 3.3 Review of Monetary Policy and Tools in the First Half of 2025 - The "moderately loose" monetary policy has been implemented. In Q2, policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have been implemented. The central bank has also proposed to optimize monetary policy intermediate variables and improve the interest rate transmission mechanism [22] - In terms of interest rates, policy rates remained unchanged in Q1, and an interest rate cut was implemented in Q2. The money market interest rates have been continuously loose in the first half of 2025 [23] - In terms of aggregate, a reserve requirement ratio cut was implemented in May, releasing 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity. In June, the central bank carried out outright reverse repurchases and medium - term lending facilities. Although the net investment in the second quarter was less than that in the first quarter, overall, medium - and long - term liquidity achieved net investment [24] - In terms of structure, in May, the central bank increased the quota of re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, increased the quota of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses, and established re - loans for service consumption and elderly care. Currently, the balance of structural monetary policy tools is about 7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 15% of the central bank's balance sheet [25] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy will continue. Aggregate and structural monetary policy tools will be used to support key areas, and there is a possibility of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20BP interest rate cut in the second half of the year [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, new regulations were introduced to promote the issuance of "science - technology innovation bonds" and support equity investment institutions in participating in bond - market financing. The report analyzes the definition, credit characteristics, and rating methods of equity investment institutions at home and abroad, and offers suggestions for improving the rating methods [2]. - The current regulatory definition of equity investment institutions is overly broad. Domestic rating methods rely too much on static financial indicators, and there is insufficient penetration of underlying assets in domestic rating models [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Definition of Equity Investment and Equity Investment Institutions - Equity investment refers to investors or investment institutions purchasing stocks of other enterprises or directly investing in the shares of other enterprises with monetary funds, intangible assets, and other physical assets. In China, "equity investment funds" refer to "private equity investment funds." The term "private" has two meanings: private equity and non - public fundraising. Currently, Chinese equity investment funds can only be raised privately [4]. - Considering regulatory definitions and actual bond - issuing enterprises, equity investment institutions are defined as those engaged in private equity investment and venture capital with registration in relevant authorities, and various enterprises or institutions with equity investment as their main business [10]. 3.2 Main Credit Characteristics of Equity Investment Institutions - Asset dimension: The core assets of equity investment enterprises are financial assets formed by equity investment. The investment portfolio accounts for over 85% of total assets, and equity - related assets account for about 85% of the investment portfolio [11][12]. - Income dimension: The income of equity investment enterprises mainly comes from investment income and changes in fair - value gains or losses, with relatively high income volatility. From 2022 - 2024, the year - on - year growth rates of investment income were - 11.5%, 24.8%, and - 10.2% respectively [15]. - Leverage dimension: The business funds of equity investment enterprises mainly come from self - owned funds and raised funds, with a significantly lower overall leverage ratio compared to non - financial enterprises. From 2022 - 2024, the asset - liability ratios of sample equity investment enterprises were 40.7%, 43.0%, and 43.3% respectively, lower than the approximately 52% of non - financial bond - issuing enterprises [16]. 3.3 Rating Methods of Domestic and Foreign Credit Rating Agencies for Equity Investment Institutions 3.3.1 International Perspective - **S&P**: It uses a "business risk + financial risk" dual - analysis framework for investment holding companies. Business risk is analyzed from national, industry, and investment - portfolio dimensions, and financial risk is analyzed from aspects such as leverage and liquidity. The final credit rating is obtained through a risk matrix and adjustment factors [21]. - **Moody's**: It analyzes investment holding companies from five dimensions: investment strategy, asset quality, financial policy, market - value - based leverage (MVL), and debt coverage and liquidity. The initial credit rating is determined by a scoring table, and the final rating is obtained after adjustment [25]. - **Fitch**: It evaluates investment holding companies from business and financial risk dimensions. In the business dimension, it assesses investment strategy, risk preference, investment - portfolio diversity, and credit characteristics. In the financial dimension, it focuses on cash - flow indicators and uses a triple - LTV system [35][36]. 3.3.2 Domestic Perspective - Different domestic rating agencies have different definitions of equity investment institutions. The rating methods generally adopt a combination of "individual rating + external support analysis." In terms of business risk, there is high consensus in evaluating investment - portfolio dispersion, investment strategy and risk control, asset liquidity, and asset credit quality. In terms of financial risk, core indicators are similar [39][40]. 3.4 Thoughts on the Rating Methods of Equity Investment Institutions - The current regulatory definition of equity investment institutions is overly broad. Some institutions with mixed business models are included, and the asset characteristics of state - owned holding platforms and industrial investment entities differ from those of typical PE/VC institutions. Solutions include strict screening and classification [47]. - Domestic rating methods rely too much on static financial indicators, making it difficult to capture the core dynamic risk characteristics of equity investment institutions. Dynamic evaluation indicators such as market - value sensitivity and rolling cash - flow forecasts need to be introduced [48]. - Due to the high proportion of non - listed equity and insufficient asset transparency, domestic rating models have insufficient penetration of the underlying assets of equity investment institutions. Penetration standards and risk - quantification tools need to be improved [49].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, under the strategic guidance of the April Politburo meeting and the support of relevant policies, China's bond market "Science and Technology Board" was officially launched. The issuance management system of the bond market "Science and Technology Board" shows new changes compared with previous innovation - related bonds. - In the first month of operation, the bond market "Science and Technology Board" boomed, with a sharp increase in issuance scale, enhanced diversity of issuers, contributions to technological innovation from different perspectives, relatively low financing costs, and active participation of rating services. - Looking forward, the bond market "Science and Technology Board" has broad development prospects. It is necessary to improve the bond market system management, diversify the market subject structure, and enhance the capabilities of the intermediary support system [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Institutional Environment Clarity - **Previous Situation**: From May 2022 to April 2025, relevant institutions successively launched innovation - related bond varieties, promoting the rapid rise and development of the innovation - related bond market. In 2024, the issuance amount of innovation - related bonds reached 122.4124 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58.28%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative issuance of innovation - related bonds was 40.1264 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.62%. However, there is still room for significant improvement in terms of scale growth, structural optimization, and support for technological innovation [8]. - **New Policies**: On May 7, 2025, relevant institutions issued a series of rules and documents, providing strong institutional support for the launch of the bond market "Science and Technology Board". - **Bank - Inter - market**: Compared with "Science and Technology Notes", "Science and Technology Bonds" have changes in bond identification, issuer subject classification, and use of raised funds. For example, the bond name is more prominently labeled, the issuer includes technology - based enterprises and equity investment institutions, and the use of raised funds is broadened [9][10][11]. - **Exchange - Market**: Compared with previous systems, the new regulations have changes in the type of issuers, information disclosure, and clause design. For example, financial institutions and equity investment institutions are newly supported to issue bonds, information disclosure is simplified, and innovative bond clauses are encouraged [15][16][18]. 2. Rapid Market Upturn - **Surge in Issuance Market Scale**: In the first month of the bond market "Science and Technology Board" (from May 8 to June 7, 2025), 209 bonds were issued, with a total issuance face value of 389.777 billion yuan, an increase of 308.63% compared with the same period last year. The issuance scale of the inter - bank market and the exchange market both increased significantly year - on - year, with the inter - bank market being the main force [21][23][24]. - **Enhanced Diversity of Issuers**: - **Financial Institutions**: They became an important highlight. During the inspection period, financial - type science and technology bonds issued a total of 227.4 billion yuan, accounting for 58.34% of the total issuance of science and technology bonds. Banks, securities companies, and policy banks actively participated [28]. - **Equity Investment Institutions**: A number of venture capital institutions and state - owned asset operation companies issued science and technology bonds, injecting capital into technology - based enterprises [29]. - **Industrial Enterprises**: They are distributed in multiple fields such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and automobiles. Some large - scale issuing enterprises include Sinopec and Syngenta Group [29]. - **Support for Technological Innovation from Different Perspectives**: By supporting different types of issuers, science and technology bonds can directly or indirectly support technological innovation, such as helping technology - based enterprises repay debts, supporting equity investment institutions to increase capital for technology - based enterprises, and enabling financial institutions to provide funds for technology - based SMEs [32][33]. - **Relatively Low Financing Costs**: The average issuance interest rate of science and technology bonds during the inspection period was 1.95%, lower than the 2.25% of the same - period credit bonds (excluding science and technology bonds), which is related to the relatively high credit ratings of science and technology bond issuers [34]. - **Active Role of Rating Services**: Since 2024, domestic credit rating agencies have developed and launched rating methods and models for technology - based enterprises. In actual rating operations, different types of issuers use different rating models, such as commercial bank rating models for commercial bank science and technology bonds [36][37][38]. 3. Broad Market Prospects - **Improvement of Bond Market System Management**: - **Reasonable Market Access Threshold**: It is necessary to set reasonable access thresholds for different types of issuers, balance the pros and cons of different access policies, and ensure that the use of funds is in line with the purpose of promoting technological innovation [44][45]. - **Effective Information Disclosure**: Information disclosure should be diversified and unified, involving multiple parties such as issuers, bond intermediaries, and public sectors. The quality of information disclosure should be emphasized [46]. - **Market Feedback and Adjustment Mechanism**: Strengthen the whole - process management of science and technology bonds, and establish a feedback and adjustment mechanism for the use of funds to ensure that funds are used for technological innovation [47]. - **Connection with Regional Policies**: The management system of science and technology bonds should be integrated with regional technological innovation policies, and resources should be allocated reasonably according to regional characteristics [48]. - **Diversification of Subject Structure**: - **Extension from Market Institutions to Public Institutions**: Local governments have the possibility and necessity to become issuers of science and technology bonds to support semi - public scientific research projects and diversify financing channels [50]. - **Extension from Large - scale to Small - and Medium - sized Technology Enterprises**: More support should be given to high - growth potential small - and medium - sized technology enterprises, and the high - yield bond market should be developed [52]. - **Enhancement of Intermediary Support System**: - **Credit Rating Services**: Strengthen the construction and application of credit rating technology for science and technology enterprises and their bonds, and get rid of the traditional rating concept centered on assets and revenue scale [53]. - **Technology Evaluation and Certification Services**: Develop evaluation and certification services in the science and technology field, improve resource utilization efficiency, and complement other intermediary services [54]. - **Technology Credit Enhancement Services**: Prudently develop credit enhancement services for science and technology enterprises, including science and technology insurance and science and technology guarantee markets [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively assesses the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprises in 2024 from three dimensions: the profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity. Overall, the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprise - class public bond issuers has increased, with significant differences at the enterprise, industry, and regional levels [3][6][8]. - At the enterprise level, in 2024, although the financial flexibility of enterprises has marginally improved, overall profitability has continued to weaken, short - term liquidity is under pressure, and the liquidity risk has further increased, with intensified pressure on tail enterprises [6]. - At the industry level, in 2024, against the backdrop of shrinking terminal demand and continuous pressure on the entire real - estate chain, liquidity risks have significantly accumulated in industries related to the upstream and downstream of real estate and urban investment platforms deeply tied to land finance. Industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, and the risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly compared to 2023 [6]. - At the regional level, in 2024, Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Construction of the Liquidity Risk Measurement System from the Perspective of Debt Repayment Credit - The assessment of liquidity risk from the perspective of debt - repayment credit is mainly based on the analysis of liquidity sources and applications. Enterprises with good profitability, high financial flexibility, and strong short - term solvency generally face lower liquidity and default risks. The report selects several quantitative financial indicators from three dimensions (profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity) for basic evaluation and maps the scores to a five - level classification of liquidity risk evaluation results (L1 - L5) [4][9][12]. - The basic evaluation indicators include total asset return rate, asset - liability ratio, short - term debt ratio, EBIT/interest expense, (EBITDA - capital expenditure)/interest expense, operating cash flow net amount to current liability ratio, cash - to - short - term debt ratio, current ratio, and cash - to - current liability ratio [11]. 3.2. Sample Overview - Considering data availability, the report selects bond - issuing entities with outstanding public bonds (enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, project revenue notes) as of May 26, 2025, excluding those that have experienced material defaults or have unavailable financial data. A total of 3,061 issuing entities are used as sample data, and their annual reports from 2021 - 2024 are used for analysis. Currently, the issuing entities of outstanding public bonds in China are mainly urban investment and state - owned enterprises [5][13]. 3.3. Analysis of the Liquidity Risk of Non - Financial Enterprise - Class Public Bond Issuers in 2024 3.3.1. Enterprise - Level Analysis - In 2024, the risk center of public bond - issuing entities has further deteriorated, and the proportion of tail enterprises has reached a new high. The overall profitability of enterprises has weakened, with the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreasing by 3.3% compared to the previous year. The proportion of entities with liquidity risk evaluation results of L4 and L5 has increased from 49.0% and 5.4% in 2023 to 52.3% and 7.4% in 2024, respectively [14]. - From the perspective of each indicator dimension, in 2024, the profitability of public bond issuers in China has continued to decline, and the coverage ability of operating cash flow has weakened. Although the financial flexibility has marginally improved, the short - term debt pressure remains high, and the short - term liquidity has generally tightened [20][21]. 3.3.2. Industry - Level Analysis - In 2024, industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises in each industry exceeding 60%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises increasing by more than 10 percentage points [23][24]. - The real - estate industry continues to adjust, with real - estate enterprises facing significant cash - flow pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, cautious development strategies, and high inventory [25]. - The steel industry has seen a decline in production and demand, with prices falling and enterprises facing significant performance pressure and increased liquidity risks [26]. - The basic chemicals industry is in a low - prosperity stage, facing challenges such as over - capacity and weak domestic demand, with the overall profitability under pressure [27]. - The building decoration industry is affected by weak downstream demand, with a decline in new contracts and increased pressure on construction funds, especially for weak - quality tail enterprises [28]. - The commerce and retail industry has been affected by weakening consumer demand, with profit pressure on enterprises [29]. - Urban investment platforms face continued pressure on local finance due to the adjustment of the land market, and although the asset and debt structure has been optimized, the internal operating pressure remains, and the liquidity risk of some weak - quality entities has increased [29]. 3.3.3. Regional - Level Analysis - In 2024, regions such as Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises exceeding 70%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [33][36].

Investment Rating - The investment outlook for the commercial banking industry in China is stable, reflecting expectations for the basic credit conditions over the next 12 months [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The stable outlook is based on assumptions of stable economic growth and moderate improvement in financial indicators within the industry. The GDP growth forecast for the next 12 months is set at 4.5-5% [3][4]. - The banking environment is expected to remain stable, supported by favorable economic conditions, although there are concerns regarding the sustainability of loan demand and the continued narrowing of net interest margins [3][4]. - Asset quality, capital ratios, and liquidity are projected to improve due to policy support and enhanced risk management capabilities within commercial banks [3][4]. Recent Industry Performance Business Scale - The growth rate of asset and liability scales of commercial banks has slowed due to a high base from previous periods and weak credit demand. By the end of 2024, total assets reached 372.53 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [8][10]. - As of March 2025, total assets increased to 386.23 trillion yuan, maintaining a similar growth rate compared to the end of 2024 [8][10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has been declining, reaching 1.5% by the end of 2024, down from 1.59% in 2023. However, the proportion of special mention loans has slightly increased [13][18]. - The asset quality varies among different types of banks, with state-owned banks and joint-stock banks showing better stability in their NPL ratios [13][18]. Profitability - The net interest margin has been under pressure, declining to 1.52% by the end of 2024, the lowest historical level, with a further drop to 1.43% in the first quarter of 2025 [20][22]. - Non-interest income has shown an upward trend, but overall profitability is declining, with net profit growth turning negative in 2024 [23][22]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios have improved due to accelerated issuance of external capital supplement tools, with the overall capital adequacy ratio reaching 15.74% by the end of 2024 [26][30]. - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio has seen a slight increase, although some banks face challenges in internal capital replenishment due to narrowing net interest margins [26][30]. Liquidity - The liquidity position of commercial banks has improved under a moderately loose monetary policy, with liquidity ratios reaching 76.74% by the end of 2024 [34][35]. - The liquidity coverage ratio stood at 154.73%, indicating a robust liquidity position across the banking sector [34][35]. Industry Policies Capital and Risk Management - The implementation of the "Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures" aims to enhance capital regulation and risk management, particularly for small and medium-sized banks [40][41]. Credit Policy Optimization - The focus remains on supporting the real economy through optimized credit policies, with significant growth in loans to technology, green finance, and small enterprises [44][43]. Risk Prevention - Efforts to mitigate risks in key areas, including the real estate sector and local government debt, are ongoing, with measures to support the restructuring of small and medium-sized banks [45][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes Shandong provincial state - owned capital investment and operation companies from four dimensions: establishment background and process, positioning and consolidated business directions, assets and profitability, and outstanding bonds and bond valuations [2]. - Shandong provincial state - owned capital investment and operation companies' construction process can be divided into three stages: transferring state - owned capital to the provincial social security fund (2014 - 2017), introducing Shandong Guohui and transferring 20% of social security funds to it (2018 - 2020), and restructuring the social security fund council into Caixin Company and reorganizing the provincial investment and operation platforms (2020 - present) [2][8][9]. - These companies can be classified into five types according to their functions and business directions: state - owned capital operation companies, diversified industrial investment companies, focused industrial investment companies, financial investment companies, and policy - oriented investment companies [3][15]. - The asset scale of 12 provincial state - owned capital investment and operation companies in Shandong is significantly differentiated, and the asset structure varies greatly due to different functional positioning and business segments. Their profitability is good but has been under pressure in recent years [4][31][43]. - The outstanding bonds are mainly public bonds, and the scale is also significantly differentiated. Shandong Development, Shandong Guotou, Shandong Land, Shandong Steel Group, and Shandong High - speed have relatively low weighted ChinaBond valuation yields [5][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Emergence: Establishment of Shandong Provincial Investment and Operation Companies - In 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee proposed to reform the state - owned capital authorization and operation system. Shandong Province launched a new round of state - owned enterprise reform [6]. - In 2014, Shandong issued the "26 Articles on Shandong State - owned Enterprise Reform", and in 2015, it passed the "1 + 5" documents, which jointly formed the top - level design for the construction of Shandong's state - owned investment and operation platforms [7]. - The construction process of Shandong provincial state - owned capital investment and operation companies has three stages: transferring state - owned capital to the social security fund, introducing Shandong Guohui, and restructuring and integrating platforms [2][8][9]. 3.2 Anchoring Direction: Company Positioning and Consolidated Business Directions - Companies are divided into five types: state - owned capital operation companies (e.g., Shandong Guotou), diversified industrial investment companies (e.g., Hualu Group, Lushang Group, Shandong Guohui), focused industrial investment companies (e.g., Shandong Energy, Shandong Gold, Shandong High - speed, Shandong Steel Group), financial investment companies (e.g., Luxin Group), and policy - oriented investment companies (e.g., Shandong Land, Shandong Development, Shandong Finance) [3][15]. - Each type of company has its own core business and development strategy. For example, Shandong Guotou focuses on IT business, Hualu Group on high - end chemical industry, and Luxin Group on financial services [19][20][23]. 3.3 Financial Perspective: Company Assets and Profitability 3.3.1 Asset Dimension - Asset scale is significantly differentiated, divided into four echelons. Shandong High - speed and Shandong Energy have over - trillion - yuan asset scales, while Shandong Development has the smallest scale [31]. - Asset composition varies. There are four types based on the consolidated statements: assets mainly formed by industrial subsidiaries' businesses, financial assets and long - term equity investments in financial subsidiaries, assets mainly formed by equity investments, and assets mainly formed by government - function infrastructure and its investment and financing services [32][34][35]. 3.3.2 Profitability Dimension - The overall profitability of 12 companies is good but has been under pressure in recent years. Since 2022, the overall revenue growth has slowed down, and the net profit has declined [43]. - In terms of revenue structure, 7 companies have more retained operating profits, 4 companies' profits mainly come from investment income, and Shandong Steel's investment income is an important source of profit due to industry downturn [44]. 3.4 Bond Market: Outstanding Bonds and Bond Valuation Overview - Outstanding bonds are mainly public bonds, and the scale is significantly differentiated. Shandong High - speed has the highest outstanding bond scale, while Shandong Development and Hualu Group have the smallest [52]. - Shandong Development, Shandong Guotou, Shandong Land, Shandong Steel Group, and Shandong High - speed have relatively low weighted ChinaBond valuation yields, less than 2% [52].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The monetary policy continues to be "moderately loose" and shifts its focus towards stabilizing growth. Given the increasing external shocks and the need to consolidate the domestic economic recovery, further monetary policy easing can be expected [2][26]. - Multiple quantitative monetary policy tools are continuously used to maintain sufficient liquidity, and the credit resources are mainly directed towards the "Five Major Articles", "consumption", and "stabilizing foreign trade". Price - based tools are still restricted by the net interest margin, and financial institutions may be guided to price rationally [2][26]. - With the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the weakening of the US dollar's safe - haven property, the pressure on the exchange rate to restrict monetary policy has eased [2][9]. - In the bond market, due to the need for stabilizing growth, the capital market may become looser, and bond yields still have room to decline. The central bank plans to innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market to guide bond funds to the innovation field more efficiently [2][26]. - In terms of credit, the short - term credit risk may increase due to the uncertainty of the external environment, and attention should be paid to the progress of trade frictions, the sustainability of economic recovery, and the frequency and intensity of policy repairs [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tone - The monetary policy in Q1 2025 continues the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Politburo Meeting, emphasizing "flexibility" in policy implementation [8]. - Although the domestic economy started well in Q1, affected by the US tariff policy since April, the domestic export has been frustrated. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar's safe - haven property has eased the exchange - rate pressure on monetary policy. The domestic monetary policy will still be "moderately loose" and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment [9]. Interest Rates - The Q1 report adds the statement of "reducing the bank's liability - side cost". With the adjustment of the MLF operation mechanism, the policy rate system has changed, and it is expected that the deposit rate will decline following the loan rate [10][12]. - In Q1 2025, the weighted average interest rate of new loans issued by financial institutions decreased. The central bank advocates promoting the decline of the comprehensive financing cost of SMEs by clarifying various financing costs [13]. Liquidity - The Q1 report aims to maintain sufficient liquidity. In the short - term, the capital market has changed from a tight - balance to a loose state. In the medium - and long - term, the central bank has adjusted various tools to supplement the capital gap. The reduction of the deposit - reserve ratio in May will release long - term liquidity and relieve the bank's net interest - margin pressure [15][16]. - The central bank has suspended the treasury - bond trading operation in Q1 and may resume it under specific conditions [17]. Credit - The Q1 report emphasizes increasing credit supply and guiding more credit resources to key areas and weak links. In addition to the previous areas, it also highlights "stabilizing foreign trade" [19][21]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on the "Five Major Articles", consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [21]. Bond Market Mechanism - The Q1 report proposes to innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market, which will help guide bond funds to the innovation field more efficiently and solve existing problems in the science - innovation bond market [22][23]. - The central bank emphasizes strengthening investors' interest - rate risk management and points out that the pricing efficiency and risk - management ability of the bond market need to be improved [24].