远东研究·违约专题 2026 年 1 月 30 日 作者：简尚波 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 民企新增债券违约率环比下降，新增两家企业违约 ——2025 年第四季度信用债违约分析 摘 要 2025 年第四季度（简称"第四季度""本季度"），债券市场共 有 3 只债券新发生违约，涉及 3 家违约主体，违约时的债券余额 合计 24.14 亿元，第四季度新增违约债券只数和相关债券余额相 对上年同期有所下降。第四季度，债券市场新增主体违约率为 0.04%，较上个季度（0.07%）相比有所减少；新增债券违约率为 0.01%，低于上个季度（0.02%）水平。第四季度，民营企业新增 债券违约率为 0.04%，较上个季度（0.19%）显著下降；国有企业 未发生新增债券违约。 相关研究报告： 本季度债市新增首次违约主体 2 家，为上海华铭智能终端设 备股份有限公司（简称"华铭智能"）、天安人寿保险股份有限 公司，旗下各有 1 只债券违约。根据可获公开数据，华铭智能近 年经营状况持续亏损状态，自身造血能力均不足以对公司债务偿 还提供充分保障。近年来，该公司暴露信息披露违规等问题。2025 年 7 月，该公司被 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market in May 2025, the issuance scale of science - and - technology innovation bonds (hereinafter referred to as "Sci - tech bonds") has increased significantly, with the issuance scale in 7 months exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan and the annual issuance scale expected to reach about 2.1 trillion yuan, far exceeding that in 2024. However, there are still structural imbalances in the issuance of Sci - tech bonds, such as low issuance scales of pure technology - based enterprises and private equity investment institutions. To address these issues, the report proposes three suggestions to expand the scale and enhance the efficiency of Sci - tech bonds under existing constraints [3][4][7] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. How Has the Sci - tech Bond Market Operated Since the Launch of the "Technology Board" in the Bond Market? - **Policy Background**: Since 2007, the bond market has been exploring ways to support technological innovation. The "Technology Board" in the bond market was launched in May 2025, optimizing the product system and supporting mechanisms, and promoting the linkage of equity, bonds, and loans in the Sci - tech field [5][6] - **Issuance Scale**: From May to the end of the year, the issuance scale of Sci - tech bonds was about 1.7 trillion yuan, 1.4 times that of the whole year of 2024. The average over - subscription multiple was 2.7, and the issuance cost was low, with over 50% of the issuance rates below 2% [7] - **Issuance Subjects**: The issuance subjects were more diversified. Although still dominated by central and state - owned enterprises (87%), AAA - rated (75%), and traditional industries (62%), the issuance scales of financial institutions (over 380 billion yuan), pure technology - based enterprises (over 200 billion yuan), and equity investment institutions (5.8 billion yuan) also increased. The proportion of private enterprises was 8%, and the absolute scale was 2.3 times that of the same period last year [4][8] - **Bond Terms and Guarantees**: The proportion of Sci - tech bonds with special terms exceeded 50%, and the proportion of guaranteed bonds increased slightly to 7%, with more diversified guarantee methods [9][11] 3.2. Rationally View the Limitations of the Current Bond Market in Supporting Technological Innovation - **Structural Imbalance**: The issuance scales of private enterprises, pure technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions were generally low, especially for private equity investment institutions, with only 2.5 billion yuan [25] - **Underlying Reasons**: There was a contradiction between the low - risk preference of the credit bond market and the high - risk nature of technological innovation. Building a high - yield bond market could fundamentally solve the structural problems, but it was a systematic project that required time. The current guarantee and credit enhancement system for Sci - tech bonds also had issues such as limited coverage [26][27][28] - **Outlook**: In the future, the support for private equity institutions and technology - based enterprises by the Sci - tech bond market may be limited to "point - based" breakthroughs, and it will take longer to achieve "full - scale" support [29] 3.3. Three Suggestions for Expanding the Scale and Enhancing the Efficiency of Sci - tech Bonds under Constraints - **Support Medium - sized Mature Technology Enterprises with Sci - tech Convertible Bonds and Sci - tech Collective Bonds**: Focus on medium - sized mature technology enterprises, which have strong economic benefits and can obtain wider recognition from investors with the help of guarantee and credit enhancement. Promote the implementation of Sci - tech convertible bonds and explore the pilot of Sci - tech collective bonds to expand the financing channels of medium - sized technology enterprises [32][33][34] - **Increase Support for "Small but Beautiful" Equity Investment Institutions through Multiple Parties' Cooperation**: "Small but beautiful" private equity investment institutions have advantages in supporting early - stage, small - scale, and hard - tech enterprises. Increase the support of central guarantee institutions and policy - based guarantee tools, explore diversified credit enhancement methods, and improve the approval mechanism and information disclosure level to play the "leverage effect" of Sci - tech bond funds [35][37][38] - **Encourage the Issuance of "Sci - tech M&A" Dual - Labeled Bonds**: In the key stage of China's scientific and technological innovation development, the demand for M&A funds in the Sci - tech field is increasing. Encourage the development of the Sci - tech M&A bond market, enhance the innovation - gathering function of Sci - tech bonds, and prevent leveraged acquisition bubbles [39][40][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 Central Politburo Meeting and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of loose fiscal and monetary policies and the resolution of key issues such as local government debt and arrears to enterprises [2][8][9] - In November 2025, the issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution accelerated, with the 500 - billion - yuan local debt balance quota concentratedly implemented. The progress of implicit debt clearance, platform withdrawal, and exit from key provinces continued [3][13] - The net financing of urban investment bonds remained under pressure, and the resolution of operating debts, including non - standard debts, continued. The integration and transformation of urban investment platforms were active, and the number of new issuers of industrial bonds increased [4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Major Policy Updates on Debt Resolution and Urban Investment Transformation - The 2025 Central Politburo Meeting emphasized the continuation of loose fiscal and monetary policies and the resolution of arrears to enterprises [2][8] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference focused on resolving local government debt risks, especially the "operating debt risks of financing platforms", and optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods [2][9][10] 3.2. Debt Resolution Progress Tracking 3.2.1. Implicit Debt Resolution Progress - **Local Government Bond Replacement**: In November, the issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution accelerated. The annual quota of special bonds for replacing implicit debts was almost completed, with only 1.1 billion yuan remaining in Henan. Special refinancing bonds resumed issuance, and the 500 - billion - yuan local debt balance quota was concentratedly implemented. The total annual issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution reached 3.58 trillion yuan by November 30, 2025 [3][13][14] - **Implicit Debt Clearance**: As of the end of November 2025, Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai, 30 prefecture - level cities, and 146 districts and counties had announced the completion of implicit debt clearance [3][24] - **Platform Withdrawal and Exit from Key Provinces**: Nationally, as of the end of September 2025, the number of financing platforms decreased by 71% compared to March 2023. In November 2025, 31 entities announced "no longer undertaking government financing functions", and 32 entities declared themselves market - oriented operating entities. Inner Mongolia confirmed its exit from key provinces, and Ningxia met the exit conditions [3][30][31] 3.2.2. Operating Debt Resolution - **Bonds**: In November, the net financing of urban investment bonds remained under pressure, with the proportion of debt for borrowing new to repay old reaching 93%, and the average issuance interest rate slightly dropping to 2.34% [4] - **Non - standard Debt Resolution**: In November, 3 cases of non - standard debt resolution were monitored, all through bank loan replacement. The actual progress of bank loan replacement of non - standard debts was relatively slow [4][48][49] - **Unified Borrowing and Repayment**: In November, only 1 "unified borrowing and repayment" bond was issued, with a limited number of overall implementation cases [54] 3.2.3. Arrears to Enterprises - In November, many places continued to promote the resolution of arrears to enterprises and announced relevant progress [5][59] 3.3. Tracking of Urban Investment Platform Integration and Transformation 3.3.1. Overview of Urban Investment Platform Integration - In November, 39 urban investment platform integration events were monitored, with Jiangsu being the most active region. The integration mainly included three directions: establishing new industrial investment platforms through asset integration, promoting professional integration of business segments, and integrating regional resources to create high - credit - rating entities [6][61] 3.3.2. Overview of New Issuers of Industrial Bonds - In November, the number of new issuers of industrial bonds increased significantly, with 80 new issuers, of which 49 were urban - investment - like industrial entities, accounting for 61%. The industries were concentrated in social services, non - bank finance, and real estate [6][76][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the credit spreads of bonds in the market generally widened across all tenors and ratings. The difference between the spreads of AA- and AAA bonds decreased, indicating a reduction in credit differentiation [2]. - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of different industries changed variedly in Q3 2025, with overall small fluctuations. The spreads of industries such as leisure services, comprehensive, building decoration, machinery and equipment, non-ferrous metals, and mining increased significantly, while those of the banking and real estate industries narrowed. The spread of medium - rated (AA) real - estate bonds continued to widen due to the unimproved supply - demand relationship in the real - estate market [2]. - For urban investment bonds, the spreads of urban investment bonds at all tenors and ratings generally widened in Q3 2025, but the increase was limited. With the continuous progress of local debt resolution and the acceleration of the clearance of financing platforms, the credit risk of urban investment bonds was generally mitigated, and the credit spread fluctuation was relatively small. The difference in spreads between low - rated (AA -) and high - rated (AAA) 5 - year urban investment bonds narrowed, indicating a relief in credit differentiation for long - term urban investment bonds [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Credit Spreads Widened Overall Spreads of All Tenors and Ratings Widened - **1 - year bonds**: Except for AA +, the spreads of 1 - year bonds of other ratings showed a similar trend. They narrowed slightly in July, then widened in August and September. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the spreads of AA +, AA, AAA, and AA - bonds widened by 30.82BP, 8.55BP, 4.55BP, and 4.55BP respectively [5][8]. - **3 - year bonds**: The spreads of 3 - year bonds showed a differentiated trend. The spread of AA - narrowed, while those of other ratings fluctuated and widened. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the spreads of AA, AAA, and AA + widened by 33.48BP, and the spreads of AAA and AA + had smaller increases, while the spread of AA - narrowed by 10.15BP [11][14]. - **5 - year bonds**: The spreads of 5 - year bonds generally showed an oscillating and widening trend. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the spreads of AAA and AA + widened by 19.81BP, the spread of AA widened by 10.81BP, and the spread of AA - had a smaller increase [15][20]. The Difference between Low - and High - Rating Spreads Narrowed - In Q3 2025, the spread difference of 1 - year bonds remained relatively stable, while those of 3 - and 5 - year bonds narrowed. At the end of Q3 2025, the spread difference of 1 - year bonds was the same as that at the end of the previous quarter, while those of 3 - and 5 - year bonds decreased by 16BP compared with the end of the previous quarter, indicating a reduction in credit differentiation [21]. Industry Credit Spreads Fluctuated Slightly, and the Spread of Medium - Rated Real - Estate Industry Continued to Widen - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of different industries changed variedly in Q3 2025, with overall small fluctuations. Industries such as building decoration, non - ferrous metals, and mining had relatively large increases in spreads, while the banking credit spread narrowed significantly [26]. - The top three industries in terms of spreads at the end of Q3 2025 were the same as those in the previous quarter, namely real estate, steel, and leisure services; the bottom three were also the same as in the previous quarter, namely power, highways, and banking. In Q3, the spreads of most industries increased compared with the previous quarter, while those of a few industries narrowed slightly [30]. - Among the eight key industries, the medium - rated spreads of building decoration, real estate, and non - bank finance widened significantly at the end of Q3 2025. The real - estate market's supply - demand relationship remained to be improved, and weak - quality real - estate enterprises still faced high credit risks [31]. Credit Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds at All Ratings Generally Widened - **1 - year urban investment bonds**: The spreads of 1 - year urban investment bonds at all ratings showed a similar trend. They narrowed slightly in July and then widened in the following two months. At the end of Q3 2025, the spreads of AAA and AA + were basically the same as those at the end of the previous quarter, while those of AA and AA - widened by 3.15BP and 4.65BP respectively [34]. - **3 - year urban investment bonds**: The spreads of 3 - year urban investment bonds at all ratings generally showed an oscillating and widening trend. At the end of Q3 2025, the spreads of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - widened by 7.24BP, 9.74BP, 11.74BP, and 22.24BP respectively compared with the end of the previous quarter [40][42]. - **5 - year urban investment bonds**: The spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds at all ratings generally showed an upward trend. At the end of Q3 2025, the spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA widened by 23.54BP, 26.44BP, and 30.54BP respectively compared with the end of the previous quarter, while the spread of AA - had a relatively small increase [43]. - The spread differences between low - rated (AA -) and high - rated (AAA) urban investment bonds of different tenors showed a differentiated trend in Q3 2025. The spread difference of 1 - year bonds fluctuated slightly, that of 3 - year bonds increased slightly, and that of 5 - year bonds narrowed slightly, indicating a relief in credit differentiation for long - term urban investment bonds [46].

Group 1: Central Bank's Bond Purchase Overview - The central bank's bond purchases, known as "buying bonds," are a key monetary policy tool, with a balance of CNY 2.25 trillion in government bonds as of August 2025, accounting for 4.85% of total assets[2][11] - Historically, the central bank has engaged in three methods of bond purchases: cash transactions, rolling purchases of special government bonds, and repurchase transactions[2][16] - Current expectations for the central bank to resume bond purchases are rising due to liquidity needs and economic pressures, particularly in the context of slowing consumption and real estate declines[3][27] Group 2: Economic Context and Policy Coordination - Economic growth pressures remain, with consumption growth slowing to 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, and fixed asset investment down by 7.1%[33][34] - The necessity for coordinated "wide monetary" and "wide fiscal" policies is increasing, as the government seeks to address debt and liquidity issues[3][27][38] - The central bank's recent meetings emphasize the importance of fiscal and monetary policy coordination to support economic stability[30][31] Group 3: Future Bond Purchase Signals - The central bank's bond buying operations have shown a pattern of increasing net purchases, with amounts of CNY 1,000 billion in August 2024, rising to CNY 3,000 billion by December 2024[28][29] - The central bank's asset-liability management indicates a need to extend the duration of government bonds held to stabilize the asset structure amid upcoming bond maturities[4][14] - The central bank's recent policy statements suggest a commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth through potential bond purchases in the near future[6][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market in May 2025 included financial institutions in the issuers of science - innovation bonds. Financial institutions have become one of the main issuers. Their issuance of science - innovation bonds can guide funds to the innovation field, build a "technology - industry - finance" cycle, and also bring benefits to themselves [2][4]. - With the implementation of supporting policies, the scale of financial institutions' issuance of science - innovation bonds is expected to increase. The proportion of medium - and long - term bonds needs to be further increased to match the long - cycle characteristics of the technology field [4][54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Background - Technology finance has developed rapidly under policy, technology, and market demand. In 2025, the central bank and the CSRC launched the "Technology Board" in the bond market, allowing financial institutions to issue science - innovation bonds. The move aims to improve the financing channels for scientific and technological innovation and promote the development of technology finance [2][6][7]. - Since the release of the relevant announcement, financial institutions have actively responded. From May 7th to August 25th, they issued 89 science - innovation bonds with a total face value of 293.27 billion yuan, accounting for 11.14% and 29.36% of the total number and face value of science - innovation bonds issued during the same period [8]. Financial Institutions' Issuance of Science - Innovation Bonds Overview - **Issuance Structure**: Commercial banks dominate in terms of issuance scale, with 226.3 billion yuan (77.16% of the total). Securities companies lead in the number of issuances, with 48 (53.93% of the total). Policy banks have the highest average single - issue amount, at 550 million yuan per bond [3][12]. - **Issuance Term/Rating**: The term structure is mainly medium - and short - term, with 2 - 5 - year bonds accounting for 94.24% of the total issuance amount. The bond ratings are mainly AAA, accounting for 92.11% [16][18]. - **Issuance Interest Rate/Spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate of financial institutions' science - innovation bonds is 1.68%, significantly lower than that of non - financial institutions (1.92%). The average issuance spread of financial institutions' science - innovation bonds is also lower than that of non - financial enterprises [3][19]. - **Fund - Raising Use**: The funds are mainly used in the scientific and technological innovation field. Commercial banks mainly use the funds for "issuing loans" and "issuing loans + investing in bonds". Securities companies mainly use them for "investment in the science - innovation field" and "replacing relevant investments in the science - innovation field" [24]. - **Regional Distribution**: The issuance is concentrated in economically developed and innovation - rich regions, such as Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong [28]. - **Issuing Subjects**: The issuing financial institutions generally have high credit ratings, large asset sizes, and strong operating capabilities. The issuers are gradually expanding from large - scale to medium - and small - sized financial institutions [30]. Understanding Financial Institutions' Issuance of Science - Innovation Bonds - **From the Perspective of Industrial Development**: Financial institutions can raise low - cost funds through science - innovation bonds and direct them to the science - innovation field, mainly to science - and technology - based enterprises and equity investment funds. The technology loans of commercial banks are increasing in both balance and growth rate [35][40]. - **From the Perspective of Business Development**: For commercial banks, issuing science - innovation bonds can balance asset - liability pressure, promote loans, and improve the product and service system. For securities companies, it can optimize the debt structure, expand business, and disperse risks [41][45]. - **From the Perspective of Asset Allocation**: The risk - return characteristics of science - innovation bonds are between those of interest - rate bonds and traditional financial bonds, providing a target for optimizing the risk - return structure of investment portfolios. The bond spreads of financial institutions' science - innovation bonds are lower than those of non - financial bonds, and there are differences in the spread fluctuations among different types of financial institutions [47][49]. Summary - Since May 2025, financial institutions have become one of the main issuers of science - innovation bonds. Their issuance has characteristics in terms of structure, term, rating, interest rate, and fund - raising use [51]. - The issuance of science - innovation bonds by financial institutions can promote the development of the science - innovation field and bring benefits to themselves. The scale of issuance is expected to increase, and the proportion of medium - and long - term bonds needs to be further improved [52][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July 2023, local government debt resolution policies have been intensively introduced, forming a "Document 35 + 6" policy system, which strictly regulates urban investment financing. Under the current refinancing environment that emphasizes both strict supervision and debt resolution, urban investment new - financing shows significant characteristics of "total volume control and structural differentiation", and the credit stratification and regional differentiation in the urban investment financing market will further intensify [2][4]. - The policy will continue to adhere to the principle of differentiated management, strictly curb new implicit debts, and support the transformation of qualified urban investment platforms. Regions with resource advantages and industrial support are expected to expand financing channels through industrial investment platforms, while regions with slow transformation and scarce resources will face severe constraints on platform financing capabilities [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urban Investment Financing Policy - Since July 2023, a "Document 35 + 6" policy system has been formed. Document 35 classifies regions and local state - owned enterprises and implements differentiated management of financing policies. The six supplementary documents further clarify measures such as controlling new government investment projects, expanding the scope of debt resolution measures, and specifying the exit path for high - risk key provinces. Overall, it comprehensively regulates urban investment financing [6]. - In March 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued Guidance Document No. 3, which added many review points for urban investment issuers, including clarifying the boundaries of urban investment entities, raising the threshold for bond issuance, and putting forward review requirements for the chaos in urban investment transformation, which is both a specific implementation of strict review and a guide for urban investment transformation [7]. - In the current urban investment financing review practice, bond issuance approval mainly relies on the list - based management, and the overall review scale is still strict. Even if the issuer is not on or has exited the "3899 list", it still needs to meet relevant regulations to issue new bonds [8]. Overview of New Urban Investment Financing - From October 2023 to July 2025, 534 urban investment entities in 28 provinces achieved new bond issuance. Economically developed provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are dominant. In terms of administrative levels, prefecture - level and district - level entities are the main ones. High - rating entities (AAA and AA+) are the leading ones in new financing. The number of entities achieving new financing in the inter - bank market and the exchange market is basically the same, but there are obvious structural differences among different administrative levels [13][14][16]. - Most entities only issued 1 new bond, and those that could issue more than 3 new bonds were concentrated in AAA - rated provincial and prefecture - level entities. In terms of bond types, the scale of inter - bank products in new urban investment bonds significantly leads that of exchange products, and medium - term notes and ultra - short - term financing bills have the largest scale. New urban investment bonds are mainly public - offering bonds, and the main use of raised funds is to repay interest - bearing debts [18][22]. Overview of Entities Issuing Bonds for the First Time First - time Issuance of Urban Investment Platforms - From October 2023, among the 534 urban investment entities that achieved new financing, 69 were first - time bond issuers. They are characterized by "relatively weak credit qualifications (mainly district - level and AA+), leading number of first - time issuers in the exchange, and private - offering products as the mainstay". Different issuance venues have obvious regional preferences [34]. - Guangdong has significantly more first - time urban investment new - issuance entities than other provinces. There are three main types of regional preferences: regions with zero hidden debts, good economic foundations, and relatively loose supervision; regions with good economic foundations but large existing urban investment debts and different supervision intensities in the inter - bank and exchange markets; regions with relatively large economic volumes but heavy debt burdens, mainly achieving new issuance in the exchange [41][42]. First - time Issuance of Quasi - Urban Investment Industrial Entities - The first - time issuance of quasi - urban investment industrial entities is characterized by "mainly prefecture - level and AA+ entities, leading number of first - time issuers in the exchange, and both public - offering and private - offering products thriving". Their credit levels are generally better than those of first - time urban investment entities, and their financing channels are more diverse [47]. - These entities can be classified into three types according to business types: industrial holding, public utilities, and transportation. Industrial holding platforms account for more than 70% of the samples, and their credit qualifications are highly differentiated, which can be further divided into five sub - types [57][70].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The extremely low interest rate of the 25 Orient Fortune Sea PPN001 (Sci - tech Bond) is mainly due to the central - local cooperation risk - sharing mechanism. The report explores the risk - sharing mechanism of sci - tech bonds from the perspectives of risk - sharing tools and private enterprise bond issuance practices [2][6]. - The risk - sharing mechanism of sci - tech bonds, while continuing the toolbox of private enterprise bonds, has a fundamental shift in service objects, aiming to cultivate the long - term financing capabilities of hard - tech private enterprises and venture capital institutions. However, the current credit enhancement means and risk - sharing mechanisms are still imperfect [4]. - The evolution of China's private enterprise bond financing support tools shows a shift from policy - oriented to market - oriented operations, but the overall support for private enterprise bond financing has not been effective, with the net financing of private enterprise bonds being negative for a long time since 2018 [3][43][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Sharing Toolbox and Relevant Practices of Sci - tech Bonds - **Risk - sharing Modes**: There are two main risk - sharing modes: diversified sharing and mutual - cooperation sharing. The report focuses on the mutual - cooperation sharing mode, and risk - sharing tools mainly include guarantee credit enhancement, credit derivatives, central - local cooperation, and the establishment of risk - compensation funds [7]. - **Guarantee Credit Enhancement**: In the credit bond guarantee practice, the guaranteed subjects are mainly AA - rated state - owned enterprises, and the guarantee method is mainly joint - liability guarantee. China's financing guarantee system is government - led, but the actual guarantee coverage of market - oriented guarantee institutions for private enterprise bonds is low. Sci - tech bonds are tilted towards high - credit - grade state - owned enterprises, with an overall guarantee ratio of less than 5%, and the guarantee of private enterprise sci - tech bonds is even more difficult [8][13][14]. - **Transaction - type Credit Enhancement**: It is usually provided by credit enhancement companies. When the issuer defaults, the bondholder can transfer the bond to the credit enhancement company. Currently, the use of this method in the bond market is rare. As of July 15, 2025, only 3 outstanding credit bonds used this method, including 1 sci - tech bond [15]. - **Credit Derivatives**: The development of China's credit derivatives market is still in its early stage. There are 6 types of credit derivatives in total, including 4 in the inter - bank market and 2 in the exchange market. The development of credit derivatives has experienced several stages, and the issuance volume increased during the private enterprise and real - estate enterprise default tides. CRMW, as an example, shows characteristics such as commercial - bank - led creation, short - term creation, and low scale coverage in supporting sci - tech bonds. The supported subjects are mainly high - credit - grade private enterprises, and the industries are concentrated in basic chemicals, textile and apparel, and electronics [16][23]. - **Local Risk -缓释 Funds**: These are risk - compensation special funds arranged by local fiscal budgets. In the credit field, they mainly support small and medium - sized enterprises; in the bond field, they mainly serve to resolve urban investment debt risks. There is a lack of practical experience in supporting sci - tech bonds, although relevant policies encourage local governments to set up such funds [26][27][28]. - **Central - local Cooperation**: It is an innovative practice under the framework of the private enterprise bond financing support tool, with a double - layer credit - enhancement structure of "central + local". It has the advantages of risk dispersion and flexible and precise financing support. In supporting sci - tech bonds, in June 2025, 5 private equity investment institution sci - tech bonds were issued, mostly using the central - local cooperation mode, and the market recognition was high [29][35][36]. 3.2 Credit Risk - sharing Practices of Private Enterprise Bonds - **Evolution of Private Enterprise Bond Financing Support Tools**: It can be divided into three stages: the establishment stage (2018 - 2021), during which the private enterprise bond financing support tool was set up; the innovation stage (2022), when non - pure policy - oriented tools and the central - local cooperation new model were launched; and the stage of increasing support (2022 end - present), featuring a normalized central - local cooperation credit - enhancement mode [40][41][43]. - **Effect of Private Enterprise Bond Financing Support Tools**: Despite the continuous increase in support for private enterprise bond financing, due to successive default tides of private enterprises and real - estate enterprises, the support resources are mainly concentrated on high - credit - grade, medium - and large - sized private enterprises. The overall support effect is not significant, with the net financing of private enterprise bonds being negative for a long time since 2018 [43][46][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy will continue. Aggregate monetary policy tools will take turns to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The central bank will use tools such as medium - term lending facilities, outright reverse repurchases, and pledged supplementary loans to make up for medium - and long - term liquidity gaps. There is a possibility of restarting the buying and selling of national bonds to adjust liquidity under the premise of a stable bond market. A 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in the second half of the year is expected to be implemented. Structural monetary policy tools will be enriched to further support key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption, the capital market, and "two new" and "two important" sectors. A 20BP interest rate cut in the second half of the year is also expected to be implemented [2][3][29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q2 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Highlights - The description of the domestic economy is positive, with new challenges of "more trade barriers" and "low - running prices". The judgment of the external economic environment has changed from "weak growth momentum in the world economy" in Q1 to "weakening growth momentum in the world economy", and the description of the domestic economic environment has become more optimistic. However, concerns about "persistently low - running prices" are newly added [5] - Monetary policy continues to be "moderately loose" and pays more attention to "flexibility". The implementation of subsequent monetary policies will focus more on quality, and emphasize flexible control of the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [6] - Structural monetary policy supports key areas such as "two new" and "two important". It continues to support areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption, and the capital market, and adds support for "two new" and "two important" areas [6] - Exchange - rate pressure has eased. Three "resolutely" statements are deleted, and the tone of stabilizing the exchange rate has become more relaxed. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has relieved the short - term constraints on monetary policy [7] - The real estate market is mainly focused on "stability". The stance of "stabilizing the real estate market" continues, and if the market declines in the future, there is still room for policy intensification [7] 3.2 Economic and Financial Data Performance from January to May 2025 - Industrial added - value growth has slowed marginally, and service - sector production has been relatively stable. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value were 5.9%, 7.7%, 6.1%, and 5.8% respectively. The growth rates of high - tech industries remained high, and some industries' production was affected by exports [11] - Consumption growth has been remarkable, mainly driven by the expansion of the trade - in policy and online sales promotions. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods were 4%, 5.9%, 5.1%, and 6.4% respectively. However, the follow - up policy recovery and its sustainability in supporting consumption need to be monitored [12] - The growth rate of fixed investment has continued to decline. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment have remained resilient, while real estate investment has been a drag. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment completion were 3.5%, 2.8%, 1.1%, and 0.7% respectively [13] - Export growth has slowed marginally, and the "rush - to - export" effect has diminished. From February to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export amounts were 3.6%, 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.8% respectively. Although the impact of tariffs on exports has weakened, the impact of weakening external demand still needs attention [14] - In terms of prices, both CPI and PPI have remained low, with unstable demand and narrowed corporate profit margins. From January to May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of CPI were 0.5%, - 0.7%, - 0.1%, - 0.1%, and - 0.1% respectively, and those of PPI were - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.5%, - 2.7%, and - 3.3% respectively [17] - In terms of social financing, the increment of social financing and credit has slowed down in Q2, and government bonds have been the main support. Government bonds have been the main support for social financing, while credit has gradually declined [18] - In terms of credit, the new loans of residents have declined, while corporate short - term loans have increased and medium - and long - term loans have decreased. From January to May 2025, the new short - term and medium - and long - term loans of residents have decreased, while corporate short - term loans and bill financing have increased, and medium - and long - term loans have decreased [19] - In terms of government bonds, in the first half of 2025, the net financing of general national bonds was about 2.5 trillion yuan, and that of special national bonds was about 0.9 trillion yuan. The total issuance scale of local government bonds was about 5.5 trillion yuan, and the net financing was about 2.5 trillion yuan [19] 3.3 Review of Monetary Policy and Tools in the First Half of 2025 - The "moderately loose" monetary policy has been implemented. In Q2, policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have been implemented. The central bank has also proposed to optimize monetary policy intermediate variables and improve the interest rate transmission mechanism [22] - In terms of interest rates, policy rates remained unchanged in Q1, and an interest rate cut was implemented in Q2. The money market interest rates have been continuously loose in the first half of 2025 [23] - In terms of aggregate, a reserve requirement ratio cut was implemented in May, releasing 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity. In June, the central bank carried out outright reverse repurchases and medium - term lending facilities. Although the net investment in the second quarter was less than that in the first quarter, overall, medium - and long - term liquidity achieved net investment [24] - In terms of structure, in May, the central bank increased the quota of re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, increased the quota of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses, and established re - loans for service consumption and elderly care. Currently, the balance of structural monetary policy tools is about 7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 15% of the central bank's balance sheet [25] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy will continue. Aggregate and structural monetary policy tools will be used to support key areas, and there is a possibility of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20BP interest rate cut in the second half of the year [29]