经济开门红，但未来挑战增加

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in March continued to improve, with the transformation of old and new growth drivers accelerating. However, there are increasing challenges in the future, and the economic data is expected to face downward pressure. The Treasury bond futures are in a high - level oscillation, waiting for the implementation of easing policies [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Data Continued to Improve, but Future Pressure Will Increase - March Data Improvement and Reasons: In March, the economic data mostly improved compared to the previous values. Policy implementation was the core reason for the improvement, while early Spring Festival and export rush were secondary factors. For example, the year - on - year industrial added - value growth in March unexpectedly rebounded to 7.7% due to equipment updates, export rush, and a slightly lower base. The manufacturing investment growth rate from January to March was 9.1%, and the social retail sales growth rate rose from 4.0% to 5.9%. The infrastructure cumulative growth rate increased from 10% to 11.5%, and the decline in real - estate - related indicators narrowed, but the real - estate market still faced challenges [1][9][12] - Future Challenges: There are significant challenges in the future. Trade conflicts are escalating, which will lead to a high probability of weakening export growth and drag down domestic demand. Some inherent economic problems, such as weak endogenous investment and financing momentum in the private sector, supply exceeding demand, and low price levels, remain unsolved. The sustainability of some policies is also questionable [2][13] - Policy Expectations: There are expected to be four rounds of policies. The first round stabilized the capital market, the second was related to the leader's visit to Southeast Asia. The Politburo meeting at the end of April is expected to introduce the third round of policies, mainly including industrial and monetary policies. From mid - year to Q3, the fourth round of policies may be launched, with the central bank potentially cutting interest rates first, and the possibility of increasing the fiscal deficit rate if external demand weakens significantly [14] 1.1 Policy Promotes Supply - Demand Cycle, and New Economy Develops Rapidly - Supply - Side Changes: Policy implementation was the core reason for the improvement in March data. The 1 - 3 month cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.5%, with a monthly growth rate of 7.7% in March. The growth rates of mining, manufacturing, and power industries all changed compared to the previous values. High - tech manufacturing showed rapid growth, while the growth rate of some upstream industries declined, indicating an accelerating transformation of old and new growth drivers [15][18][19] - Demand - Side Changes: Policy also drove demand - side changes. The 1 - 3 month cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment was 9.1%, with equipment updates significantly driving investment. The social retail sales growth rate in March was 5.9%, and factors such as the "trade - in" policy, accelerated fiscal expenditure, and increased resident income contributed to the improvement [21] 1.2 Infrastructure Investment Boosts Growth, and Real Estate Tends to Stop Declining - Infrastructure Investment: The government emphasized both risk prevention and development, with front - loaded fiscal efforts. The 1 - 3 month cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment was 11.5%, and the net financing scale of government bonds in Q1 was significantly higher than in previous years. Different infrastructure sectors showed different growth trends [26][27] - Real Estate Market: With the continuous implementation of real - estate policies, the decline in real - estate - related indicators narrowed, and there were positive changes in sales, housing prices, and completion rates. However, problems such as insufficient willingness of residents to increase leverage and slow policy implementation still existed, and it was difficult to achieve a comprehensive recovery in the short term [31][32] 1.3 Economic Development Faces Many Challenges, and Future Data May Weaken - External Challenges: Trade conflicts are intensifying, and high tariffs will have a significant impact on exports after the export rush in Q2 fades. This will affect employment, investment, and inflation [33] - Internal Problems: China's inherent economic problems, such as weak endogenous investment and financing momentum in the private sector and a large supply - demand gap, remain unsolved. The capacity utilization rate in Q1 decreased, and it is difficult to see significant results in optimizing supply and stimulating demand in the short term [36] - Policy Sustainability: The sustainability of some policies is questionable. For the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of some high - tech industries is low, and for the demand side, some subsidy policies may have diminishing marginal utility [37] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Oscillate at High Levels, Waiting for Easing to Materialize - Market Outlook: Before the expectation of double - rate cuts is falsified, the market is in a bullish trend, but the upward pace will be bumpy. Treasury bond futures prices are approaching previous highs and will oscillate at high levels before the implementation of easing policies. After the implementation of easing policies, prices are expected to break through [38] - Strategies: Configuration - oriented investors can hold long positions and wait for easing. Traders can buy on dips. Attention can be paid to strategies such as steepening the yield curve when it is flat, positive carry strategies for short - term varieties, and narrowing the inter - delivery spread of short - term varieties [3][40]