Dongxing Securities·2025-04-17 07:21Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Domestic airlines have seen a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in capacity deployment in March, indicating effective supply control that has improved passenger load factors by approximately 2.8% compared to the same period last year [2][10][35] - International routes experienced a significant capacity increase of about 28.9% year-on-year in March, although they remain under pressure during the traditional off-peak season [4][55] - The Civil Aviation Administration has emphasized the need for better supply-demand matching and stricter regulation of low-load segments, which reflects a serious approach to managing the industry [3][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In March, listed companies reduced domestic route capacity by approximately 3.2% year-on-year, with a slower contraction observed compared to January-February's 1.1% decrease [2][15] - The overall passenger load factor for domestic airlines decreased by 2.6 percentage points month-on-month but increased by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with major airlines showing improvements exceeding 3 percentage points [2][35][43] - The reduction in supply has positively impacted load factors, indicating a favorable shift in the domestic supply-demand relationship [10][35] International Routes - March saw a 28.9% year-on-year increase in international route capacity, primarily due to a low base from the previous year, with a 3.2% increase compared to February [4][55] - The passenger load factor for international routes decreased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, highlighting ongoing challenges during the off-peak season [4][55] - The expected high growth in capacity deployment for international routes in the first half of the year may counterbalance natural recovery, leading to slight declines in load factors [57] Airport Throughput - Major airports reported significant year-on-year increases in international passenger throughput in March, with Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen airports growing by 24%, 16%, 22%, and 34% respectively [65][73] - Compared to 2019 levels, international throughput at these airports has nearly recovered, with Shenzhen airport exceeding pre-pandemic figures [65][73]