Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-17 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation market saw a passenger transport volume of approximately 59.39 million in March, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4% compared to 2024, while domestic capacity decreased by 1.8% [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rate in March was 7.6 hours per day, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [4]. - The report highlights that the recovery of international routes is alleviating pressure on domestic capacity, leading to a decrease in domestic capacity deployment [4]. - The investment analysis suggests that the market is gradually emerging from the traditional off-season, with expectations for improved ticket prices and a rebound in domestic demand [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - In March, the passenger transport volume for major airlines showed slight growth, with China Southern Airlines at +2%, China Eastern Airlines at +7%, and Hainan Airlines at +3% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report provides detailed statistics on the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) for various airlines, indicating growth in international routes for China Eastern and Spring Airlines compared to 2019 [5][6]. Domestic and International Market Analysis - Domestic market capacity deployment saw a decline, with China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines showing reductions of -1% and -3% respectively compared to 2024 [4][5]. - In the international market, China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines exceeded 2019 levels in both capacity and volume, with significant increases in ASK of +14% and +168% respectively [4][5]. Company Valuation and Recommendations - The report includes a valuation table for key airlines, recommending "Buy" for Spring Airlines and "Outperform" for several others, including China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [7]. - The estimated EPS for 2024 and 2025 shows positive growth for most airlines, indicating a favorable investment outlook [7].