2025年1-3月统计局房地产数据点评：销售降幅边际收敛，产业政策有望边际宽松

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [7]. Core Insights - The sales decline has significantly narrowed compared to the previous year, with housing prices showing a trend of "overall continued decline, but structural stabilization" [2][6]. - New construction starts and completions continue to decline in double digits year-on-year, while real estate investment remains at a large decline [2][6]. - Following last year's policy changes, market expectations have improved, and while the latest volume and price data show seasonal declines, they still exhibit resilience [2][6]. - The most challenging period for the industry may be passing, with housing prices approaching a more balanced position [2][6]. - Current stock prices are not significantly above the bottom, indicating a high probability of achieving excess returns during the period of marginal policy easing [2][6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Prices - In Q1 2025, national commodity housing sales value and area decreased by 2.1% and 3.0% year-on-year, respectively, with March showing a decline of 1.6% and 0.9%, indicating a narrowing of the sales decline compared to the previous year [9]. - The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month in March, with first-tier cities showing slight increases [9][10]. Construction and Investment - New construction area in Q1 2025 decreased by 24.4% year-on-year, with March showing an 18.1% decline, while completions fell by 14.3% year-on-year [9][10]. - Real estate development investment in Q1 2025 decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, with March also showing a 9.9% decline [9][10]. Funding and Financials - Funds available to real estate companies decreased by 3.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with domestic loans and self-raised funds down by 2.3% and 5.8%, respectively [9][10]. - The report indicates that the willingness of residents to increase leverage remains weak, impacting the overall funding situation [9][10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the most difficult times for the industry may be behind, with expectations of single-digit declines in sales and investment for 2025, while construction starts are expected to continue in double-digit declines [2][6]. - The report suggests focusing on high-quality real estate companies with core assets, regional leading companies benefiting from debt resolution, and state-owned property companies with stable cash flows [2][6].