Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong)·2025-04-17 09:10Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to consolidate in the short term, with a "barbell" investment strategy recommended for balanced allocation[1] - After recent corrections, the Hong Kong stock market presents high investment value, supported by rising expectations of domestic counter-cyclical policies[1] - High-dividend stocks are likely to provide a certainty premium and may outperform in the current market environment[1] Group 2: Impact of Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase the tariff rate on China to 125%, potentially leading to a decline in corporate profits and reduced willingness to export to the U.S.[1] - The anticipated impact of tariffs could account for approximately 10% of China's total exports, affecting GDP by about 2%[1] - The market is likely to experience sideways movement due to uncertainties surrounding the implementation of tariffs and their economic implications[1] Group 3: U.S. Financial Market Volatility - The U.S. financial markets have experienced significant volatility, raising doubts about the effectiveness of fundamental and technical analysis[2] - A notable increase in U.S. Treasury yields, coupled with a decline in the dollar index, indicates a "trust crisis" in the dollar[2] - The Trump administration's tariff policies may lead to a reliance on achieving trade agreements to restore confidence in the U.S. economy[2] Group 4: Dollar Index and Credit Weakening - The dollar index has fallen significantly, reaching a two-year low of 99.01, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies[3] - The weakening of the dollar's credit is accelerating, driven by a decline in U.S. economic advantages and an increase in de-dollarization trends[3] - The forecast for the dollar index has been adjusted to a range of 98-104, indicating a potential long-term weakening trend[3]