Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The real estate market in China still has significant growth potential, with the sales side showing continuous improvement in the first quarter of this year despite weak performance in various indicators [1][3]. - The government is expected to implement more supportive policies, including land acquisition and urban renewal, to stimulate housing consumption and optimize the market [1][2][3]. - The market size remains substantial, with projected sales area and sales volume for 2024 at 970 million square meters and 9.7 trillion yuan, respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The real estate market in China has considerable development space, as emphasized by Premier Li Qiang, who noted the need to release market potential and promote the construction of quality housing [2][3]. - Despite a decline in commodity housing sales for three consecutive years, the overall market scale remains large, suggesting that potential demand may stabilize and support healthy industry development [3]. Policy Support - The central government is actively promoting policies to digest existing housing stock and optimize new housing measures, with a focus on "de-inventory" strategies [3]. - Recent meetings have highlighted the importance of giving local governments greater autonomy in the acquisition of existing housing, which is expected to lead to new supportive measures [2][3]. Urban Renewal and Demand - There is ongoing emphasis on urban renewal and the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is anticipated to activate existing stock and optimize new supply [2][3]. - High-capacity cities still have room to adjust restrictive policies, which could further release market demand, particularly for residents with rigid and improved housing needs [3][8].
房地产行业快评报告:行业仍有较大发展空间,支持性政策有望加快推进
Wanlian Securities·2025-04-17 09:42