美联储不配合降息，市场降息预期下滑

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term rating of "fluctuation intensifies" for copper [1] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's possible non - cooperation with interest rate cuts has reduced market expectations, and copper prices may continue to correct. In the short term, the rebound of Shanghai copper may have temporarily peaked, with weak and volatile trends in the short term, and there is a risk of significant decline due to concerns about economic recession [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Shanghai copper closed at 75,260 yuan/ton (- 0.93%), London copper at $9,188.5/ton (+ 0.27%), New York copper at $4.6760/pound (+ 1.44%), Shanghai electrolytic copper premium at 95 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) at - $173.5/ton, and futures exchange inventories started to accumulate [1] News Situation - Fed Chairman Powell's speech indicated that Trump's tariff measures put the Fed in a dilemma. Powell may prioritize inflation control, which reduced market interest - rate cut expectations, causing US stocks to fall and the US dollar index to rise. Copper prices may correct [2] Trading Logic - In the short term, the rebound of Shanghai copper may have temporarily peaked, with weak and volatile trends, and beware of significant decline due to trading economic recession. The deepening of negative processing fees increases the possibility of supply cuts, and smelting production may decline in April. The positive effect of the consumption peak season is weakening [3] Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options [4]