豆粕生猪：油厂开机回升，豆粕延续回落

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased, while the DCE live pig main contract 2509 increased. The price of CBOT US soybeans main contract rose overnight. The price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak, and the live pig market is expected to maintain a short - term strong pattern [2]. - For soybean meal, although US soybean futures prices are rising due to a weaker US dollar and renewed trade optimism, the record - high South American soybean production restricts the upside. Brazilian soybean harvest is nearly finished, and Argentina's harvest weather has improved. The domestic soybean import cost decline drags down the soybean meal price, and the subsequent soybean meal price may remain weak. For live pigs, the supply is expected to increase, but the demand has a certain support, and the short - term strong pattern is expected to continue [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed at 3020 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous trading day. The coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes are 200 - 300 yuan/ton. DCE live pig main 2509 contract closed at 14435 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.86 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The CBOT US soybeans main contract rose 0.33% to 1040 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest agricultural main producing area, there will be scattered showers in the western region from Wednesday to Saturday. Temperatures will fluctuate. In the eastern region, it will be mostly dry on Wednesday and have scattered showers from Thursday to Saturday. Another system later this week will bring more widespread rainfall and the threat of severe thunderstorms. The Rosario Exchange expects unstable weather in the next few days, but the weather may enter a more favorable cycle from next week, with less rainfall in the second half of April [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - As of April 13, 2024/25, the EU's soybean imports reached 10.95 million tons, up from 10.1 million tons in the same period of the previous year. On April 16, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal continued to decline. The import cost of US soybeans on April 17 was 3889 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The production forecast of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 is 164.262448 million tons, up 13.3% from the previous year [5][6]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of live pigs in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][13][14]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategy - Soybean Meal: US soybean futures prices are rising, but the record - high South American soybean production restricts the upside. The domestic soybean import cost decline drags down the soybean meal price. The soybean meal price is expected to remain weak as the market anticipates the recovery of soybean meal supply [15]. - Live Pigs: The supply is expected to increase, but the demand has a certain support. The short - term strong pattern of the live pig market is expected to continue [16].