黑色金属日报-20250417

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, representing a complex signal with some bullish and bearish elements [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Coke: ★☆★, showing a complex signal with some bullish and bearish elements [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, presenting a complex signal with some bullish and bearish elements [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, implying a clear bearish trend and an ongoing market movement [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear bearish trend and an ongoing market movement [1] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and most commodity futures are under short - term pressure. The future trends of various commodities depend on factors such as demand intensity in the peak season, domestic and foreign macro - policies, and the implementation of domestic policies [1][2] - For most commodities, the impact of tariff policies and the recovery of real - estate sales are important factors to watch [1] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread steel: This week, the apparent demand has unexpectedly recovered, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has been depleted faster but remains at a relatively low level. The market is pessimistic, and the trading floor is under short - term pressure [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand has improved, production has stabilized, and inventory has continued to decline. As profit per ton of steel decreases, the resumption of blast - furnace production is expected to slow down [1] Iron Ore - Supply: Global iron - ore shipments are fluctuating normally, and April's shipments are stronger than last year. Domestic arrivals have rebounded significantly and are expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [2] - Demand: The apparent demand for finished products this week has unexpectedly recovered, and there is still room for the resumption of hot - metal production in the short term. The market expects stimulus policies around the Politburo meeting at the end of April, and there is a small room for a short - term rebound [2] Coke - The price is weak. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Coke inventory remains high, and the price is likely to be weak in the short term due to factors such as compressed premium on the trading floor and rising coal - for - coking prices [3] Coking Coal - The price is weak. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Mine production has increased, and inventory has continued to rise. The price is under pressure from inventory levels and delivery expectations and is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] Silicomanganese - The price rebounds and then weakens. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Inventory has increased significantly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - The price rebounds and then shows weakness. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Demand has decreased marginally, supply has declined, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]