美国经济：关税前抢购支撑零售，鲍威尔鹰派施压白宫

Economic Overview - In March, U.S. retail sales rebounded with a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, driven by preemptive purchases due to tariff concerns[5] - Sales of motor vehicles and parts surged by 5.3% month-on-month, while gas station sales fell by 2.5% due to declining oil prices[5] - Excluding motor vehicles and gas stations, retail sales grew by 0.8%[5] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the importance of achieving inflation targets and acknowledged the conflict between anti-inflation and employment goals, reflecting concerns over stagflation risks[2] - Powell denied the existence of a "Fed Put," indicating that the responsibility for stabilizing financial markets lies with the White House[2] - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates once in June or July and again in September or December due to market volatility and recession risks[1][2] Industrial Production - Industrial production fell by 0.3% month-on-month in March, slightly below the market expectation of -0.2%[5] - Utility output dropped significantly by 5.8%, contributing to the overall decline in industrial production[5] - Manufacturing, which accounts for three-quarters of industrial output, saw a slight decrease from 1% in January to 0.3% in March[5]