Workflow
国金期货沪铅日度报告-20250417
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-04-17 12:05

Group 1: Report Information - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: April 16, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - In the macro - aspect, the change in Trump's underlying demands for tariffs may be the reason for his fluctuating attitude, and there is an objective probability that China and the US will return to the negotiation table [3] - In the supply - demand aspect, on the supply side, due to new production capacity in 2025, the supply of lead concentrates is expected to increase by 1.5%, but low processing fees and a shortage of scrap batteries affect the supply volume; on the demand side, the replacement policy boosts the demand for electric bicycles and improves data center storage, but the penetration of lithium batteries continuously squeezes market share, and overall demand is still in the off - season and mainly for rigid needs [3] - In the technical aspect, from the hourly line, the market sentiment has declined, leading to continuous drops in futures prices; from the daily line, the futures price has fallen after breaking through a new resistance level; in the short term, the price may maintain a range - bound operation [3]