瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250417

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic urea market is under relatively pessimistic sentiment. The short - term compound fertilizer operating rate may continue to decline, and the melamine downstream follow - up atmosphere is not optimistic. The factory operating rate is at a low level. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to increase this week. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1755 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 13 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main contract position is 162305 lots, an increase of 76135 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 4767, an increase of 2062; the exchange warehouse receipts are 4480, down 28 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong are down 10 yuan/ton, the price in Jiangsu remains unchanged, and the price in Anhui is down 10 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is 125 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 11.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 90.62 million tons, up 7.25 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 86.4%, up 0.51%; the daily output is 194400 tons, up 1200 tons. The export volume is 0, unchanged. The monthly output is 6087080 tons, an increase of 610930 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 48.89%, down 3.48%; the melamine operating rate is 64.63%, up 4.45%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 261 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 39 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 683.83 million tons, an increase of 150.92 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32100 tons, an increase of 2210 tons [2] Industry News - As of April 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 90.62 million tons, an increase of 7.25 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. As of April 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 11.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 million tons, a month - on - month decline of - 5.88%. As of April 17, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 135.03 million tons, a decrease of 1.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of - 0.76% [2]