Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-17 13:16Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 17 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the resumption of some maintenance - shut - down capacities, so the overall output will keep increasing [3]. - Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the demand in the traditional downstream peak season is gradually picking up. With the recent decline in zinc prices, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved. Domestic inventories have declined significantly and are expected to enter the traditional destocking cycle, while overseas destocking continues [3]. - Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand [3]. - Technically, the position is increasing, and the short - selling sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure. Operationally, a light - position short - selling strategy is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21,990 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc was 140 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,582 dollars/ton, down 33 dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc was 233,473 lots, down 1,595 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was - 6,544 lots, up 2,443 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 9,561 tons, down 597 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 63,857 tons (weekly), down 4,686 tons. The LME inventory was 190,550 tons (daily), up 78,525 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,220 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 490 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was - 31.57 dollars/ton, down 8.19 dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,550 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons. According to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - ILZSG's global zinc mine production was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 597,000 tons (monthly), up 30,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory was 88,900 tons (weekly), up 2,300 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area was 66.14 million square meters, down 672.7884 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area was 737.43 million square meters, up 255.91 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production was 3.4986 million vehicles, up 51,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option was 18.32% (daily), down 0.34%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option was 18.32% (daily), down 0.34% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 18.3% (daily), up 0.22%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 17.98% (daily), down 0.07% [3]. 7. Industry News - According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in February 2025, the global zinc sheet production was 1.1245 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1079 million tons, with a supply surplus of 16,600 tons [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump even exceeded the Fed's highest pre - prepared estimate. Don't expect the Fed to rescue the market, as Trump changes every day [3]. - From a macro perspective, Powell said on Wednesday that the US economic growth seems to be slowing down, consumer spending growth is moderate, the rush to buy imported goods to avoid tariffs may drag down the estimate of GDP, and confidence is also deteriorating. Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the attractiveness of the US dollar has been weakened [3].