瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250417

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of lithium carbonate remains in a pattern of relatively high supply, with continuous inventory accumulation. The options market shows a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The recommended operation is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Overview - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract is 70,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,523 lots, up 1,574 lots; the position of the main contract is 90,216 lots, down 11,365 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 880 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GME are 29,262 lots, down 21 lots [2] - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,550 yuan/ton with no change; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,650 yuan/ton with no change; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2] - Upstream Situation: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 793 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,100 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,238 yuan/ton with no change [2] - Industry Situation: The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7,490 tons; the monthly import volume is 12,327.97 tons, down 7,794.24 tons; the monthly export volume is 417.13 tons, up 18.53 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 50%, up 8%; the monthly production of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18,000 MWh [2] - Downstream and Application Situation: The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8%; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 57% with no change; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,277,000 vehicles, up 389,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,237,000 vehicles, up 345,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 41.16%, up 0.85%; the monthly export volume is 158,000 vehicles, up 27,000 vehicles [2] - Option Situation: The total subscription position is 67,060 lots, up 3,140 lots; the total put position is 23,502 lots, up 932 lots; the total position put - call ratio is 35.05%, down 0.2635%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.17%, up 0.0018% [2] 3.2 Industry News - In March, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 7.7% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month; the total retail sales of consumer goods was 409.4 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year and 0.58% month - on - month. In Q1, the GDP was 3.18758 trillion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a promotion meeting on the access of intelligent and connected vehicle products and software online upgrade management, requiring car companies to conduct comprehensive combined driving assistance test verification and avoid exaggerated and false publicity [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics introduced the economic operation in Q1, stating that China has the confidence to face external challenges, the new economic pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation is taking shape, and the real - estate market situation has improved [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - Fundamentals: The downstream is mainly executing long - term contracts, reducing the purchase of spot bulk orders. The supply from upstream smelters is still higher than the downstream's psychological price, resulting in a light - trading spot market and continuous inventory accumulation [2] - Options: The put - call ratio of positions is 35.05%, and the subscription position in the options market has an advantage, with a bullish market sentiment and a slightly increased implied volatility [2] - Technical Analysis: In the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2] 3.4 Operation Suggestion - Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2]