Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-17 13:21Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily growing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, the risks caused by export trade obstacles due to the cancellation of domestic aluminum product tax rebates and overseas tariff increases should not be ignored. It is also recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 19,645 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,828 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 2,802 hands to 218,124 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 13,102 hands to 100,589 hands [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants decreased by 4,825 tons to 185,050 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 436,975 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 19,800 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 155 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 12 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month was 747.52 tons, down 3.23 tons; the national alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month was 647.02 tons, down 64.53 tons [2]. - The national alumina export volume in the month was 21 tons, up 1 ton; the import volume was 4.17 tons, up 0.58 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 67.10 tons, down 2.60 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,517.20 tons, unchanged [2]. - The national primary aluminum import volume in the month was 200,200.39 tons, up 38,792.39 tons; the export volume was 3,426.54 tons, down 4,973.02 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national aluminum product production in the month was 598.17 tons, down 12.49 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.60 tons, up 13.60 tons [2]. - The national aluminum alloy production in the month was 155.20 tons, up 10.20 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.75 tons, down 0.06 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 18.33%, up 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.09%, up 0.07% [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 13.1%, up 0.0026; the option call - put ratio was 0.81, down 0.0232 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In March, US retail sales increased by 1.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 1.3% [2]. - China's GDP in the first quarter was 318,758 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [2]. - From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 199.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract showed an oscillating trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis [2]. - The supply of alumina may slightly converge, and the demand is expected to grow steadily [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed an oscillatingly stronger trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is steadily increasing, and the demand is also boosted, but export trade risks should be noted [2].