橡胶：基本面存中和作用，胶市或不必悲观

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined significantly. However, considering the fundamentals, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply side is at the beginning of the new rubber - tapping season, and it will take time for production to increase. The domestic demand side shows strong tire开工, and the inventory growth in Qingdao is slowing down. The technical price has reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year, and the probability of further decline in the short - term is low [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southeast Asia is about to start tapping, and domestic production is gradually increasing - In terms of supply from rubber - producing countries, according to ANRPC revised data, the rubber production in January 2025 continued the high - yield state of the fourth quarter of last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. Although the output decreased rapidly in February compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 750,000 tons. The supply during the low - yield season this year is looser than that of last year. It is expected that the data for March and April will also maintain a year - on - year positive state. - Overseas, after the Songkran Festival in Southeast Asian main producing areas, rubber tapping is expected to start gradually. In Thailand, some areas in the north and northeast are in trial tapping, and the south is expected to start normal tapping in late April and increase production in mid - May. In Vietnam, large - scale tapping has not started due to the dry season, and only individual state - owned farms have started trial tapping. - In China, the Yunnan production area is in the transition period of tapping, with slow growth of latex output. The Hainan production area is in the initial stage of tapping, with low overall latex output. Most processing plants have not officially started work, and only state - owned factories have started to purchase latex. It is expected that large - scale tapping will gradually start at the end of April or early May [5]. 3.2 Downstream tire start - up is strong and stable, and the terminal automobile market had a good start in the first quarter - In terms of downstream tire start - up, the overall performance in the first quarter of this year was good, especially in the second half after the Spring Festival. Although it has declined slightly recently due to the US tariff trade war, the start - up rate is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the all - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 66.15%, and the semi - steel tire start - up rate is maintained at 78.52%, both higher than the best level in the second half of last year. - In terms of tire production, due to the high start - up rate in the first quarter, the tire output in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, reaching 176.5 million pieces. In terms of tire exports, the exports in January and February both achieved positive growth. Although the export volume in February decreased significantly compared with January, it still had a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. - In the terminal automobile market, in March, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 11.9% and 8.2% year - on - year respectively, and by 42.9% and 37% month - on - month respectively. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles increased by 14.5% and 11.2% year - on - year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly, while the performance of commercial vehicles was slightly weaker. The new energy vehicle market continued to heat up, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [8][12][16]. 3.3 The growth of Qingdao inventory is slowing down, and the increase of futures warehouse receipts is stabilizing - According to the domestic inventory data, since the inventory in Qingdao started to increase again in November last year, the inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. The inventory in Qingdao has increased from 413,000 tons at the beginning of November to 621,000 tons currently, with a cumulative increase of 50.36%. However, the growth rate has slowed down significantly recently, especially in the past two weeks, the increase has been less than 0.5%. - In terms of domestic futures inventory, since March, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have continued to increase slightly, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - standard rubber futures, which had decreased before, have also increased again. Currently, the increase of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has slowed down, with the total amount exceeding 200,000 tons, and the 20 - standard rubber futures warehouse receipts have increased to 77,700 tons, with a steep increase rate [18][20]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Since the US launched a tariff trade war at the beginning of April, the rubber market has declined severely. The Shanghai rubber has broken through the high - level operating center since the fourth quarter of last year and reached the lower limit of the operating center in the first half of last year. The maximum phased decline this month was close to 2,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai rubber and more than 2,800 yuan/ton for 20 - standard rubber futures. - The tariff trade war has had a large short - term impact on the confidence of the industrial chain. The US tariff on China has increased to 125%. Although the rubber market has declined significantly recently, there is no need to be overly pessimistic from the perspective of fundamentals. The market may gradually digest the negative news around the 14,000 - yuan mark and wait for the production increase in each production area in the new rubber - tapping season and the further development of the US tariff trade war [24][25][26].