Overnight Night Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 1.96% at $61.94 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.87% at $65.88 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and supply - demand relations [2] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 3.62% at $3357.70 per ounce, hitting a record high, and COMEX silver up 1.43% at $32.76 per ounce, due to US tariff policies and Fed's monetary policy [2] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME copper up 0.56%, LME zinc down 1.4%, LME nickel up 0.39%, LME aluminum up 0.7%, LME tin down 0.31%, and LME lead up 0.11% [2] - CBOT agricultural futures rose, with soybeans up 0.26%, corn up 0.36%, and wheat up 0.72% [3] - Domestic commodity futures at night mostly fell, with energy - chemicals mostly down, black - series mostly down, agricultural products mostly down, base metals mixed, and precious metals up [3][59] Important Information Macroeconomic News - US demand for Ukraine's aid repayment seems to ease, reducing the estimated aid from $300 billion to about $100 billion [6] - From April 1 - 13, national passenger car retail sales were 515,000 units, up 8% year - on - year, down 14% month - on - month, with cumulative sales this year at 5.642 million units, up 6% [6] - China responds to US tariff hikes, stating it will take counter - measures to safeguard rights and justice [6] - China's Q1 GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year, achieving a good start [6] - China's price has stage and structural features, and measures are needed to promote price recovery [7] - WTO cuts global trade growth forecast to - 0.2% from 3.0% due to US tariff hikes [8][43] - US March retail sales rose 1.4%, core sales up 0.5%, driven by pre - tariff car purchases [8] - Fed Chair Powell says policy is well - positioned, waiting for more data, and tariffs may boost inflation [8] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of April 15, domestic asphalt shipments were 367,000 tons, up 14.7% week - on - week [11] - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory dropped to 22.11 million barrels [12] - OPEC received oil production compensation plans from eight countries [12] - As of April 16, China's methanol port inventory was 585,600 tons, with East China adding 30,300 tons and South China reducing 14,500 tons [12] - Thailand plans to import more LNG from the US in five years and will discuss tariffs next week [14] - US commercial crude inventory rose 515,000 barrels to 443 million barrels, and SPR inventory rose 299,000 barrels to 397 million barrels [14] Metal Futures - Indonesia's nickel miners' association calls for re - evaluating higher nickel royalties [16] - Guizhou's alumina spot traded 300 tons at 2950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [17] - India may import gold and other items from the US to address trade concerns [17] - In Feb 2025, global refined copper supply was short by 75,900 tons, and 1 - 2 months by 58,500 tons [17] - In Feb 2025, global refined nickel supply had a surplus of 4,100 tons, and 1 - 2 months by 8,300 tons [18][19] Black - Series Futures - Mount Gibson Iron's Q1 iron ore output was 557,000 wet tons, down 13.4% quarter - on - quarter and 48.5% year - on - year [21] - In March, China's steel output rose, and real estate investment fell [21] - On April 16, 242 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate was 87.58%, up 0.2 ppts [21] - Vale's Q1 iron ore output was 6.7664 million tons, down 20.7% quarter - on - quarter and 4.5% year - on - year [22] - Rio Tinto's Q1 Pilbara iron ore output was 6.98 million tons, down 19% quarter - on - quarter and 10% year - on - year [22] Agricultural Futures - As of April 13, EU's soybean imports were 10.95 million tons, and rapeseed 5.34 million tons [25] - EU's 2025/26 rapeseed output is estimated at 19.9 million tons, with drought risk [25] - Zhengshang Exchange adjusted rapeseed meal delivery warehouses [25] - As of April 15, soybean oil port inventory was 687,000 tons, down 54,000 tons [26] - Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil output may reach 47 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [26] - As of April 15, China bought about 11 million tons of May - shipped soybeans, 95% completed [27] - As of April 15, India's sugar output was 25.425 million tons [27] - Malaysia's April 1 - 15 palm oil output rose 3.97% [29] - Brazil's 2025 soybean output may be 164.262448 million tons, up 13.3% [29] - Expected US soybean and corn export sales in specific periods are given [29] Financial Markets Finance - Six consumer finance companies listed nine bad asset transfer projects in April [31] - Ten private banks cut deposit rates in April, mainly for 3 - and 5 - year deposits [31] Real Estate - China's Q1 real estate investment fell 9.9%, sales down 2.1%, and funds down 3.7% [33] - First - tier cities' new home prices rose for four months, and second - hand prices turned up [33] - Qingdao introduced 12 real estate policies, including subsidies and loan products [33] Industry - MIIT promotes intelligent connected vehicle management, emphasizing safety [34] - Local NDRC conducts a survey on computing power for national layout [35] - Nine departments promote education digitization, including AI models [35] - China's Q1 industrial capacity utilization was 74.1%, up 0.5 ppts [38] - China's Q1 smartphone shipments rose 3.3%, with Xiaomi leading [39] - Huawei launched new products and announced a new brand cooperation [39] Overseas - Fitch expects Fed to cut rates in Q4 2025, with US growth at 1.2% in 2025 [40] - Fed's Harker says there are reasons to keep policy stable [40] - Canada's central bank keeps interest rate at 2.75% [41] - WTO warns US tariff hikes may cause 1.5% global economic decline [43] - Japan's central bank may act if US tariffs harm its economy [44] - South Korea's finance minister will discuss trade with US [45] - Italy's PM will meet US President to ease trade tensions [46] - US March industrial output and retail sales data are released [47][48] - Eurozone and UK March inflation and retail data are released [49][51] International Stock Markets - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.72% [54] - Google faces a £5 billion lawsuit in the UK [54] - OpenAI acquires Context.ai and launches new models [55] - ASML and Abbott report Q1 financial results [56] - EU approves Leqembi for Alzheimer's treatment [57] Commodities - Domestic commodity futures at night mostly fell, and April 17 may see a fuel price cut [59] - China's March industrial output of coal, oil, gas, and power rose [59] - Domestic gold prices hit a record high [60] - A new PBAT standard will be implemented in 2025 [60] - 2024 global stainless steel output was 62.6 million tons, up 7% [61] - US President signs an order to investigate key mineral risks [62] - Domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate price was stable at 71,500 yuan/ton [64] - US EIA crude inventory rose last week [65] - Baltic Dry Index fell 1.74% [66] Bonds - Bond market was stable, with Treasury futures up and yields mostly down [67] - Convertible bond indices fell, with some individual bonds having large movements [68] - The Ministry of Finance will issue 21 - period special Treasury bonds from April 24 [69] - The Ministry of Finance will bid for 100 billion yuan 2 - month Treasury cash deposits [70] - Japan and China increased their US Treasury holdings in February [71] - Some bonds will be redeemed, and companies issued or planned asset - related events [71] Foreign Exchange - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 33 pips at 7.3179 [73]
冠通期货螺纹钢日报-20250417
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-04-17 13:47