野村：中国汽车与电动汽车-2025 年第一季度 3 月表现稳健，关税直接影响有限

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD (1211 HK), XPENG Inc. (XPEV US), and Desay SV (002920 CH) [70][72][78]. Core Insights - The China auto market showed solid performance in March 2025, with wholesale shipments reaching 2.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and a month-on-month increase of 36% [1][9]. - The penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) rebounded to 50.4% in March 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the EV segment [1][9]. - The report highlights the limited direct impact of recent US-China tariffs on the auto sector, with only 116,000 vehicles exported to the US in 2024, representing 1.8% of total auto exports [2][43]. Market Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the report notes a healthy year-on-year growth in both passenger vehicle (PV) and EV markets, with PV wholesales at 6.4 million units, up 12.9% year-on-year [10]. - Retail sales of EVs during the quarter reached 2.4 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36% [10]. - BYD's retail shipments in March 2025 were 290,200 units, with a market share of 29.3%, although it experienced a decline from the previous month due to a high base effect [12][17]. Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The report suggests that the reciprocal tariffs should have limited direct impact on the auto supply chain, as both auto and parts are excluded from the new tariffs [3][46]. - The ongoing negotiations between China and the US regarding minimum pricing for China-made EVs could act as a positive catalyst for the auto market [4][40]. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the need for OEMs to adapt to a competitive environment, with potential shifts in focus towards pricing strategies if demand remains weak [5][64]. - Key models to monitor include Xiaomi YU7, Seres AITO M8, and XPENG G7, which may influence the competition dynamics in the premium auto market [5][66]. Future Outlook - The report expresses a cautiously positive outlook for the China auto market, driven by rapid development in the EV sector and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [6]. - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show in April 2025 is expected to provide further insights into market trends and consumer preferences [65].