高盛：中国第一季度 GDP 和 3 月经济活动数据大幅超预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's economy, with Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [2][10][20] Core Insights - China's Q1 GDP and March activity data exceeded expectations, driven by export frontloading in anticipation of higher US tariffs, with industrial production growth accelerating significantly [10][20] - Retail sales growth improved notably in March, supported by a surge in automobile and home appliance sales due to a consumer goods trade-in program [10][20] - The services industry output index also showed improvement, indicating a recovery in the services sector [15][20] - Fixed asset investment growth edged up, primarily due to increased infrastructure and manufacturing investments, although property investment remained weak [13][20] Summary by Sections GDP and Economic Activity - China's real GDP grew by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, with year-on-year growth stable at 5.4%, above the market consensus of 5.2% [10][20] - The report anticipates a significant drop in sequential GDP growth in Q2 and low growth in H2 due to external shocks from increased US tariffs [20] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year in March, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and increased output in the computer industry [12][20] - Sequentially, industrial production gained 0.8% month-on-month non-annualized in March [12][20] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth rose to 4.3% year-on-year in March, led by infrastructure investment growth of 10.9% [13][20] - Manufacturing investment growth remained strong at 9.2%, while property investment continued to decline at -10.0% [13][20] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth increased to 5.9% year-on-year in March, significantly above market consensus, with notable improvements in online and offline sales [14][20] - Home appliance sales surged to 35.1% year-on-year growth in March, driven by the trade-in program [14][20] Services Sector - The services industry output index grew by 6.3% year-on-year in March, reflecting a recovery in the services sector [15][20] Property Market - Property-related activity remained subdued, with property sales volume growth improving slightly to -1.0% year-on-year in March [16][20] - New home starts and completions continued to decline significantly, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [16][20] Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.2% in March, with the youth unemployment rate showing structural pressures [19][20]